Gulf on the brink after Khamenei killing
Yet another war has started, this time predictably in the Middle East, the region which has been on tenterhooks for quite some time now. Despite the negotiations and peace parleys, the US attacked Iran on February 28 with a flurry of missiles which landed in Iran, causing heavy damage and reported killing its supreme leader, Ali Khammenei along with his family members. In a retaliatory action, Iran targeted various US military bases in the Gulf region. This is not going to be an easy or quick war, as presumed by the US, as Iran is not showing any signs of surrendering to the will of the US and, in fact, has become more resilient and is reportedly contemplating collateral damage on a massive scale. With this situation, the Middle East has entered one of the most perilous chapters in its contemporary history.
The killing of Ali Khamenei is not merely the elimination of a leader; it is the decapitation of a political system built around a clerical authority. For over three decades, Khamenei stood at the apex of Iran’s theocratic state, shaping its nuclear ambitions and directing its regional proxies to take on the West and its sympathisers. His sudden death leaves not just a vacuum in Tehran, but a tremor across the Gulf.
Washington has legitimised an attack with failed nuclear negotiations and mounting regional instability. President Trump has openly urged Iranians to “take over” their government. Yet regime change is easier said than done. The Islamic Republic of Iran was never merely Khamenei though he was central to it. The Revolutionary Guards, the clerical establishment, and a vast patronage network remain intact - and potentially primed for retaliation. Above all, it is also suspected to hold a sizable nuclear arsenal.
As stated above, it is not an easy war as some analysts in the Pentagon might be thinking. The immediate danger is that this might spread in the region and beyond. The US attack has made Israel vulnerable with the looming danger of a nuclear attack if Iran plays suicidal. The US war room wrongly assumed that the people of Iran would come out to rebel against Iran’s regime.
Iran’s “axis of resistance” - Hezbollah, Hamas, and militias in Iraq and Yemen - may now become galvanise and launch localised attacks as some of them have already started doing. Missile strikes on Gulf infrastructure, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, or attacks on US bases are plausible.
This would indeed adversely impact the world economy, already going under strenuous period. Oil markets are already jittery; insurers are recalculating risk. Inside Iran, the picture is equally volatile. Years of economic collapse, sanctions, and brutal crackdowns have eroded the regime’s legitimacy. Khamenei’s death could embolden reformists and dissidents.
But it could just as easily empower hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who may consolidate power under emergency rule. Moreover, the covert involvement of Russia and China could further intensify the conflict, making it more violent, protracted, and reminiscent of a drawn-out war like the situation in Ukraine.
