China’s demographic slide: Lessons for India

It is an irony of numbers. Once the most populous country in the world, China today has been replaced by India and its population is declining rapidly as it is not even able to maintain the birth rate of 2.1 required to maintain its present levels. It achieved what looked impossible - to reduce the size of its population by social engineering to control population. The Chinese experiment, though successful, has lessons for nations like India which have high population rates and would like to bring them down. Should the government intervene to reverse the population growth, and if yes, to what extent?

China’s birth rate is at its lowest level since 1949. In 2025, births fell to just 5.63 per 1,000 people while deaths climbed to their highest level in over five decades.

Interestingly, the Chinese Government, which was penalising people for having more babies, is now giving incentives to have more - from cash benefits - but no one is interested.

We in India face the same dilemma - should the Government aggressively pursue birth control or let it happen on its own? At one level, fewer births can appear beneficial. A smaller population could ease pressure on resources, housing, and the environment. But there is a price to pay in the long term, and that is precisely what China seems to be experiencing right now. China is not shrinking because it has grown rich and stable with strong social safety nets. It is shrinking rapidly while growing old, before becoming fully affluent.

The reasons for China’s fertility collapse are deeply structural and social. The infamous China one-child policy altered life choices, family norms, expectations, and aspirations. Besides, raising a child in China has become prohibitively expensive, with high costs for housing, childcare, healthcare, and hyper-competitive education. Parenthood, once a social default, is now perceived as emotionally exhausting and financially risky.

Small family size choice is the combination of high living costs, job insecurity, long working hours, limited social support, and the absence of affordable childcare that discourages family formation. A shrinking workforce threatens productivity, growth, and global competitiveness. Consumer demand weakens as the population ages. United Nations projections that China could lose over half its population by 2100 underline the scale of the challenge.

For India, the Chinese experience with demographic engineering is indeed a warning signal. Though India needs to reduce its population to become prosperous, the perils of forced demographic engineering outweigh their advantages. India still enjoys a demographic dividend, but it is not automatic or permanent. Without sufficient jobs, affordable urban housing, quality healthcare, and investment in women’s workforce participation, India risks replicating China’s mistakes in a different form. Population size alone does not confer power; productive, healthy, and confident citizens do. China’s falling birth rate is a warning about the limits of state control over personal life choices and the costs of ignoring social wellbeing in pursuit of growth.