Bangladesh crisis spills over South Asia
Bangladesh has been passing through a political crisis since the resignation of the Sheikh Hasina government last year. This situation has caused regional tensions. A series of riots, arson attacks, and political unrest swept across Bangladesh from December 18 to 20, 2025, following the assassination of Osman Hadi, the spokesperson of Inqilab Moncho. Hadi was shot on December 18 and succumbed to his injuries the same day.
Over the past year, India has faced challenges stemming from Dhaka’s weakened security cooperation. This instability has been tied to deep-rooted historical anti-India sentiment. Recent political unrest in Bangladesh carries significant regional implications, potentially destabilising neighbouring countries such as India, China, and Pakistan, while also affecting regional security and economic stability. Diplomatic ties between Delhi and Dhaka have reached a critical juncture, with Dhaka suspending visa and consular services at its missions in New Delhi and Agartala. India has also suspended visa services at its Chittagong centre in Bangladesh following widespread violent protests.
New Delhi and Dhaka summoned each other’s envoys earlier last week in a tit-for-tat move to express concern over the situation. India’s security concerns regarding instability in Bangladesh are raising fears of broader regional complications involving China and Pakistan.
The situation also increases the risks of illegal migration and communal violence, complicating India’s diplomatic engagements and development projects in the region. In the period following elections that banned the Awami League, Islamist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami have gained prominence.
A younger generation has developed a distinct sense of nationalism, separate from the historical narrative of Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation struggle. Across the border in India, the ramifications of Dipu Chandra Das’s killing have further intensified anti-India sentiments, making regional stability and diplomatic relations more fragile. There have been mob attacks on media outlets such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo, with accusations that these newspapers are pro-India. The growing influence of Islamist radicals and the government’s inability to contain unrest have raised serious concerns about civil stability. Civil society activists have criticised the interim government for failing to address the unrest. Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is organising a large rally to welcome back Tarique Rahman, the son of former president Ziaur Rahman, amid the ongoing political turmoil.
He is expected to be the party’s prime ministerial candidate. Many Bangladeshis have expressed concerns about India’s influence, particularly during Hasina’s fifteen-year rule, which ended amid unrest. These concerns have intensified following Hasina’s refuge in India, as New Delhi has declined to repatriate her.
After Hadi’s assassination, several young political leaders began making increasingly provocative anti-India statements. Supporters allege that the main suspect in Hadi’s murder, linked to the Awami League, has fled to India, further fuelling anti-India sentiment. Overall, Bangladesh’s continuing instability heightens the risks of conflict with neighbouring countries and complicates India’s diplomatic efforts in the region, particularly after a Hindu group protested outside Indian diplomatic premises. Deep-seated anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has been further exacerbated by Hasina’s actions and India’s handling of her asylum. The killing of Dipu Chandra Das has added to these sentiments, with some blaming the unrest on the former Awami League government.
The Yunus government has declared that there is ‘no place for such violence in the new Bangladesh’. It has assured that those involved in the recent killings will be held accountable and that no one will be exempt from consequences. Meanwhile, the BNP is preparing for a massive rally to mark the return of Tarique Rahman from London, where he has lived in exile for more than 17 years. The party plans to mobilise over five million supporters to welcome him back. Rahman, 60, is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and serves as the BNP’s acting chairman. Courts cleared him of charges after Hasina left office, enabling his return. Bangladesh’s ongoing instability continues to increase the risk of conflict with neighbouring countries and further complicates India’s diplomatic efforts, particularly after New Delhi objected to a Hindu group’s protest outside its diplomatic premises, calling it ‘unjustifiable’.
An Indian parliamentary panel has said that developments in Bangladesh pose ‘the greatest strategic challenge’ to Delhi since the 1971 independence war. India has indicated that it will engage with an elected government in Bangladesh, which could pave the way for a diplomatic reset. The BBC, quoting Riva Ganguli Das, a former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka, reported her saying, ‘I sincerely hope tensions don’t escalate further on both sides.’ She added that the ‘volatile situation’ in Bangladesh makes it difficult to predict the direction events may take.
Looking ahead, elections must be free and fair. Violence must be controlled so people can exercise their right to vote. All political parties should be given a level playing field, and the Yunus government must ensure there is no post-poll violence. A peaceful election would also help stabilise the economy. Only with the return of normalcy can Bangladesh hope to regain its development momentum.
The writer is a popular columnist ; views are personal
