Punjab’s voters remained uncharacteristically silent, leaving political parties hopeful yet uncertain about the election outcome, which ultimately did not favour any single party

The general parliamentary Lok Sabha elections 2024 have been held smoothly in Punjab without any noticeable wave or enthusiasm in favour of any political party. There has been a mysterious silence among the people raising unpredictability and allowing every party to have high hopes on the one side but hold fear in their hearts. Most political parties except the CPI-CPIM had fielded their candidates in every constituency claiming for their victory on all the thirteen seats. The voting has been lower than in the previous elections and the current national voting percentage.

There could not be alliances between the political parties because of their illusory hopes for their victory independently which pushed them into the game of engineering party-switch of the leaders. The long-time allies Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) fell apart and fielded independent candidates with the BJP importing its candidates from the state Congress top brass and Aam Admi Party (AAP) and Indian National Congress (INC), who are in alliance at the national level, could not agree on seat sharing and fielded their candidates in each constituency. Other political parties such as Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Akali Dal (Maan), CPI-CPIM had also fielded their candidates. But the voters surprised most of them by electing seven congresses, three AAP, one SAD and two independent raw candidates.

The ruling party in the state, the AAP, has won only three seats with a vote share of 26.02%, reduced from 42% in 2022 against its claim for all the thirteen in the state; it has managed to lead only in 32 assembly segments against its victory in 92 assembly constituencies in 2022 state assembly elections. Some of its candidates holding state government ministerial portfolios have trailed behind opponents in their assembly segments. All this is a matter of serious concern for the AAP to introspect.

The ruling party in the Centre, the BJP, has not been able to win any seats though it was quite hopeful for their victory with a team of the top brass of the state Congress ‘taken over’ by it on its side. Of course, to its satisfaction, it has succeeded in raising its vote bank share to 18.56% and leading in 23 assembly segments.

The Congress has won 7 seats and has gained the lead in 38 assembly segments against its victory only in 18 assembly constituencies in 2022. It has succeeded in managing the vote share of 26.3%, winning seven out of 13 seats in this election despite the unexpected defection by almost all its senior leaders to the BJP and other parties.

The two independent candidates who were neither very big leaders nor supported by any political party, have won by defeating the established leaders of established political parties by sizable margins.

The voters of Punjab have spelt out that although they maintain their identities, their political and interpersonal behaviour is predominantly secular and prejudice-free. Although it is a fact that Punjab’s population is majority Sikh and rural, its other population being 40% Hindu, one-third Dalit and other horizontal and social categories, it has distributed its representation neither based on religion, nor region and social hierarchies, but based on local issues of development. Secondly, in the absence of sound trust in the political class, its choice reflects a rejection of the other ‘not chosen’, who is or has been in power, rather than the choice itself. The voters in Punjab have painted their character and power by maintaining silence before voting but exercising their power independently and wisely on the day of voting. They have rejected the dominant discourses of religion, caste and urban/rural polarization, the discourse of victimization justifying non-performance.

They have voted for Congress on its promise of MSP for agricultural produce, a promise to pull agriculture out of distress since it is agriculture that is the spleen of Punjab’s economy so far. Whether a Hindu or a Sikh, whether an urban or a rural person, whether an upper caste or a Dalit- everybody, as a part of their collective consciousness, understands the relevance of agriculture in the state. It has chosen independent candidates exercising their rejection of all others and expressing their sympathy for their ‘condition’ against the state power. Thus, their victory can be attributed to local sentiments and political dynamics rather than any other radical ideology influencing voter preferences. In fact, for them, it would be a difficult choice between the Congress and the BJP.

(The writer is a retired Professor from Guru Nanak Dev University Amritsar; views are personal)