Today, the ‘ghost cities’, which are created as a symbol of the urbanisation drive are earmarked by two prominent indicators: One, future supply and demand ratio and the other, measuring oversupply or undersupply against existing houses in one particular city. Though this kind of theoretical presumption has its own limitations, it could help throw some light on potential ghost cities or where housing supply will outstrip demand possibly by 2020
From afar, new cities resemble China’s grand success story of rapid urbanisation. The Socialist leaders initially thought that if massive infrastructure projects and buildings were put in place, prosperity would surely follow. The leadership in Beijing largely preached that urbanisation would be a long term engine for growth as millions of villagers who have started moving to the city centres in search of both jobs and new lifestyles.
The country’s burgeoning economy was marked by a sharp surge in the infrastructure business in the newly developed cities. Multi-storeyed residential societies, commercial complexes, malls, themed plazas, Government buildings, colossal futuristic architectures are signposts of China’s mad race to urbanisation. But then, China is bringing home a number of ‘ghost cities’ in its long and arduous journey of development.
Most of the cities like Shenzen show glittering façade of economic boom, but behind this, there lies the dirty picture of the growing social tensions in and around the cities. Shenzen model is exemplary, but not at all unique. When you carefully scrutinise the deep environmental impacts and falling labour conditions, then one realises and uncovers the massive suite of social ills that come along Shenzen’s growth and profits.
In fact, the employers in Shenzen’s highly mobile export processing industries bring labourers under fast-paced, often military style, repetitive assembly work, followed by long day work hours and long period of stay in dormitories or often barrack-style shelters.
It provides enough indication that young and skilled workers undergo ruthless work and exploitation just for earning their minimum wages. Though young workers are generally preferred over older ones, because of their superior manual dexterity and for their malleability and docility, it has been observed that they are not paid the wages that they could have qualified to receive in advanced industrialised nations. Basically, they are underpaid. Also the grueling tale about the laying off practices of many multinational corporations and their local cohorts in new cities in China shows that the older employees are simply dumped while recruiting the young ones.
As a result, the aged ones go back to the countryside with a few or absolutely no jobs by the time they attain their middle age. More than this, because of the existing “hukou” system i.e. housing registration system in China, the rural workers who migrate to cities in millions cannot avail the benefits of urban welfare, regardless of how long they stayed, worked and paid taxes in the cities. Even by China’s own admission, it comes to light that the success behind the country’s special economic zones like Shenzen and others is the result of the sheer exploitation of the low-wage immigrant workers from rural households. Thus odious social symptoms prominently overshadow China’s honeymoon with globalisation.
Today, the “ghost cities”, which are created as a symbol of the urbanisation drive are earmarked by two prominent indicators: One, future supply and demand ratio and the other, measuring oversupply or undersupply against existing houses in one particular city. Though this kind of theoretical presumption has its own limitations, yet it could help throw some light on potential ghost cities or where housing supply will outstrip demand possibly by 2020.
And, this will create havoc across most of China’s new industrial hubs. For instance new satellite cities like Jing Jin city near Tianjin, hardly an hour’s drive from Beijing, is home to about 3,000 villas, which are built by mixing exotic European and Chinese-style architectures, but sadly no one has occupied these homes or facilities. Of course, many of the villas have been sold, but their owners have rarely come there as they have multiple properties. These are models copied from Shanghai’s Pudong New Area. But the problem is that the developers find it too difficult to find their own conditions, both suitable industry and people, which could rightly match the model. A survey conducted by the National Development Reform Commission shows at least one such project is being constructed by every provincial Government across China.
But in comparison with China’s thriving global cities, these lifeless urban hubs have failed to attract a huge number of migrants and at times no one as they lack job opportunities and affordable housing. Therefore experts feel regional Governments should be really wary of erecting such structures like the one in Jing Jin city as they occupy massive farmlands and the local Governments face enormous financial pressure because of the huge construction costs.
Whatsoever it may be, labeling towns and cities as ‘ghost cities’, would be unfair if we don’t offer a comprehensive estimate of the rising rate of demand and supply of homes across China. Most of the ghost towns are mainly clustered in north east China, wherein the local economies heavily rely on natural resources, farming and heavy industries.
Therefore these cities are not been able to offer diversified jobs to the unemployed. If more and more people don’t migrate to these new cities, then the massive construction projects awaiting their new occupants will definitely fail. But then just looking at the short-term over-supply of homes, branding cities as “ghost cities” will be completely irresponsible and unfair. It is argued that many of the provincial capitals which happened to be new economic hubs would certainly attract more skilled immigrants from within China. The reason behind is that these capital cities receive top priority in terms of funding for social welfare, economic development and basic infrastructure so as to compete with mega cities and to follow up the developmental trajectory of the post-globalised China.
Thus oversupply of homes can be the sole factor to name some cities as “ghost cities”. Besides, multiple ownership, one person holding more than one property, has resulted in empty houses in all cities. And to be fair, it is not unique to China, it is a symptom largely prevalent in many countries across the world.
Full of confidence, starting from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping, all the Chinese leaders have propagated the theory that economic liberalisation can be simply done without bringing even basic political freedom. Whereas the West seemed to think other way round — trade liberalisation will eventually lead to more opening of the political space and gradually, democracy will prevail in one of the remaining citadels of socialism in the world. Alas! It has not happened till date. And probably the dream project of the West will not surface in the days to come. Unless there is a major upheaval of the status quo in China, particularly of the Communist Party of China, which will largely affect the global political structure, nothing could just change this country.
However, now the question is will China witness a series of “empty new towns” in futureIJ Will the developers get enough people to pay for their multi-billion dollar inflated housing projectsIJ Naysayers say of course a big “no”. But pragmatists also express that Xi’s and the subsequent establishments in Beijing may not be fully successful in reaping the full benefits of the country’s rapid urbanisation drive.
Therefore, it is entirely a shocking experience for many as what they thought their new cities should be. It would be wiser to have some restraint on China’s ever growing greed for turning every corner of the country a ‘city’. It seems China is swallowing a big bitter pill in the name of urbanisation. With this it may so happen that the Chinese authoritarian model of economic development will create a much darker reality than what it is encountering today. Trying to repeat the Shenzen-style economic zones, without making ground assessments, would lead China to a point of no return.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
