War, warming, and the race to an overheated planet
Though the climate on earth has regularly been influenced by forces generated from meteor impacts, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orientation and spin, the change in global average temperature has not been so sudden. The temperature change has been gradual over thousands/millions of years, pushing the planet to hot high/ frigid low. The Holocene climate, at present, has been lasting for nearly 11,700 years, when moderate warming forces offset earth’s natural tendency to move towards another severe ice-age. Use of fossil fuel since industrialization begun in 1870 have overwhelmed the interglacial cycle and greenhouse gases emitted in the process has been trapping heat that has caused a 1.4-degree Celsius rise in average global temperature in 150 years.
The sudden rise in average global temperature is human-induced, be it not transitioning towards renewable energy at speed and scale, be it burning 10 to 12 thousand tons of explosives in first month of West Asia conflict, be it hitting each other’s nuclear sites, exposing the population with the risk of radiations etc.
A new trend is observed in the current war between Israel and US on one side and Iran on the other. They are hitting at each other’s gas fields, oil refineries and depots. Besides greenhouse gas emissions, the burning fields release toxic plumes of smoke, cause acidic rain, destroy critical infrastructure and trigger economic crisis. Burning oil fields release toxic cocktail of pollutants including the oxides of Sulphur and Nitrogen and black carbon soot, hazardous for human health in the region as well as globally.
Taking the cue from this war, Ukraine has also intensified hitting Russia oil refineries. The latest in the series of attack has been Yaroslavl refinery, about 282 km from Moscow. The annual production of the refinery is 3 lakh barrels per day. One can imagine the extent of damage to the earth’s climate.
The greenhouse gases emitted on account of war has been phenomenal. To bring a relative comparison here, the total emission in four years of the Russia-Ukraine war is of the order of 350 million tons of CO2 equivalent, which is equal to the greenhouse gas emission by France in one year. World leaders are not paying any attention to such environmental catastrophes and have ignored all safeguards prescribed by world bodies/ Scientists to slow down the warming of the planet.
Annual Conference of the Parties under the auspices of the United Nations’ Convention for Climate Change have been failing to cut down emissions and also failing to transition away towards renewable energy at speed and scale. US President Donald Trump finds climate as hoax and has withdrawn from all such accords, where World leaders have to take action to cut emissions. He has not exhibited any semblance of a rule-based international order. His attack on Iran is without the approval from US Congress, UN and NATO, and the economic and environmental consequences is for everyone to see.
After the planet crossed from Pleistocene to Holocene age about 11,700 years ago, the temperature has been distinctly stable. In last 150 years, the temperatures have been rising more quickly than at any time in known history. This could trigger a series of events that would put Earth on a hothouse earth trajectory. In a study conducted by William J Ripple, Oregon State University Corvallis, OR, USA; Christopher Wolf, TERA, Corvallis, OR, USA; Johan Rockstrom, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany; and their 5 other associates across Europe, it has been concluded that the climate is now departing from stable conditions that supported human civilisation for millennia.
Crossing critical temperature threshold may amplify warming and destabilise distant earth systems components. Crossing tipping thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long lasting and potentially irreversible consequences.
Scientists have identified dozens of loops where warming increases without humans’ current role. Of course, warming has been triggered by excessive use of fossil fuel, changing land use patterns, industrialization, mining and deforestation etc., but even if we start cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the planet’s warming would not stop. For instance, when Arctic ice melts, the white surface area covered by snow recedes, thereby reducing the reflectivity of the Sun rays. If the Sun’s rays are not reflected, they will be absorbed in the Earth as well as water bodies. The planet is bound to be heated up, which causes the melting of more ice. Thus, the warming accelerates without any human intervention. Scientists have identified more than a dozen such loops and call it as ‘amplifying feedback loops’. The thawing of permafrost and release of stored Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is another such loop. As the emission is accelerated, the planet continues to warm up.
The deforestation and dying forests no longer absorb Carbon dioxide. Large scale wildfires that causes burning of forests make the system net emitter of carbon, as degraded forests continuously lose its carbon sequestration potential. Scientists have identified important forest systems like Amazon as another ‘amplifying feedback loop’.
The changes in cloud cover that permits more solar radiation to reach earth is another loop. The study paper indicates how individual loops are connected to a broader theory of catastrophic change, and sixteen elements are identified as a sure indicator for warming of the planet ‘earth’, which pushes it to pass a threshold temperature, bringing a new state abruptly and permanently. Scientists have named elements as ‘tipping elements’.
Among the sixteen elements identified are Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, Permafrost regions where abrupt thawing begins, Amazon rain forests, Boreal forest die-back, Tropical Coral-reef die off etc. The Atlantic Ocean’s great overturning currents, which are the conveyor belts of the ocean’s water that keep northern Europe relatively mild is another tipping element identified. The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) can impact global heat distribution. The tipping elements are interconnected; the collapse of one could trigger the other. “Greenland” is in the eye of the storm, which the current US administration is inclined to grab for oil, gas and rare-earth extraction. The disappearance of thick ice sheets from this autonomous island could trigger the disruption of AMOC.
The tipping cascades have the potential to drive self-sustaining climate change. If tipping points come at lower temperatures, a modest future warming could send Earth to a ‘hothouse’. Global average temperature has already crossed 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2024. The planet was warming at the rate of .05 degrees Celsius per decade in the mid-twentieth century, which has currently surged to .31 degrees per decade. Though the study has not specified the temperature at which each of the tipping elements flips, but the study says that it is not a reason to delay the precautionary measures.
UN Environment Program, based on the national pledges of the countries, has assessed that the planet is on a trajectory to reach 2.8 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era by the turn of the century. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has reached 422.5 ppm, 50% higher since industrialisation began. World leaders are advised to design policies considering the risk factors explained and bring down the anthropogenic pressure on the climate. The warming must be slowed down early and countries emitting greenhouse gases should achieve net zero far too early than what they have pledged. While the countries may have their own compulsions to fight, can they avoid committing the war crimes such as hitting each other’s energy, nuclear and economic infrastructures? Burning explosives, oil & gas, and causing nuclear radiation sends an enormous amount of poison in the atmosphere. If any of the tipping elements crosses the threshold temperature the humanity would reach ‘hothouse’ state, and that would be the beginning of our end.
BK Singh is former head of Forest Force, Karnataka, and teaches Economics in Karnataka Forest Academy ; views are personal
