UBT-MNS tie-up curbs marathi vote split, BMC victory uncertain: Analysts

The coming together of Thackeray cousins Raj and Uddhav after years of estrangement will certainly help in arresting a split in Marathi voters, but the long-expected alliance will not guarantee them victory in the crucial Mumbai civic polls, said political analysts.

In a significant political development, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra NavnirmanSena (MNS) on Wednesday formally announced an alliance for the January 15 polls to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), India's richest civic body that has 227 corporator seats.

Addressing a joint news conference, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and MNS president Raj Thackeray said they have joined hands for the cause of “Marathi manoos” (Marathi speakers), who form their core support base, and Maharashtra. This is for the first time that both parties have forged an electoral tie-up after Raj Thackeray walked out of the undivided Shiv Sena in 2005 and floated his own outfit the next year. Since then, the Thackeray cousins have been political rivals.  The alliance comes at a time when both regional outfits are fighting a grim battle of survival in a state which has seen splits in major parties (Shiv Sena and NCP) and political fragmentation since 2022, besides growing dominance of the BJP. The undivided Shiv Sena controlled the cash-rich BMC for 25 years (1997-2022) with the BJP as its junior ally.

The Shiv Sena split in 2022 following a rebellion by its senior leader EknathShinde, who is now Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, the Uddhav Thackeray-led party has seen steady desertions of workers and leaders to the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the BJP. In the 2024 assembly polls, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won 20 seats, while the MNS drew a blank. Senior journalist Prakash Akolkar, author of a book on the history of Shiv Sena, insisted coming together of the two parties will avoid a split in Marathi votes, a key factor in deciding who rules the civic body with an annual budget of more than Rs 74,000 crore, bigger than some states. He, however, pointed out that at the much-hyped press meet, where the reunion was announced, the Thackeray cousins lost an opportunity to send out a strong political message as they refrained from launching a fierce attack on their common political rivals.

“It appeared to be a family reunion rather than announcing an alliance (for polls),” Akolkar noted, referring to the families of Raj and Uddhav posing for photographs at the press meet. “Coming together of the two brothers does not mean that the victory (of the Sena UBT-MNS alliance) in the BMC is guaranteed. All depends on how the Marathi manoos votes. The Marathi manoos in Mumbai is very emotional and connects with issues raised by the Thackeray brothers, especially the primacy of the Marathi language,” the journalist-author opined.  He, however, cautioned that the same emotional Marathi manoos was also influenced by the slogan “batenge to katenge” (If we are divided, we will get destroyed) and issues related to Hindutva and voted for the BJP.

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande highlighted that the division of Marathi votes will be limited after the alliance between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS. In the 2017 BMC polls, there were 20-25 wards where the BJP benefited because of the vote split between the undivided Shiv Sena and its then-rival MNS. This time, the scenario could be different in these wards, he argued. Deshpande noted that post-2019, when Uddhav Thackeray joined hands with the Congress and the undivided NCP after ending ties with the BJP, he started attracting minority votes.

“It needs to be seen whether the Shiv Sena (UBT) will get those (minority) votes (in BMC polls), like it got in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, because of its alliance with the MNS. It will also be interesting to see whether the Sena (UBT) dumping the Congress for the MNS was worth it,” the political analyst contended. The Congress has refused to forge an alliance with the Shiv Sena (UBT) for civic polls if it ties up with the MNS, which in the past has launched anti-North Indian protests in Mumbai. The Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) are constituents of the Opposition MahaVikasAghadi (MVA).

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and MNS president Raj Thackeray said they have joined hands for the cause of “Marathi manoos”