Post-Bihar poll debacle: INDIA bloc at the crossroads facing uncertain future

The outcome of the Bihar Assembly elections must be accepted at face value unless those alleging wrongdoing come forward with clear and irrefutable evidence to support their claims of a “managed poll outcome.” Until such evidence is produced, the results stand. However, the major defeat suffered by the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) — essentially the state-level expression of the INDIA alliance — does not dispel the doubts and suspicions circulating in political circles. These doubts may not be proven, but tbut they continue to hang in the air. What is certain, however, is that the Bihar verdict has shattered whatever remained of the opposition alliance before the polls. Most of the regional leaders who were part of the broader opposition front-such as Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, NCP (SCP) president Sharad Pawar, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, and others-had already been working at cross-purposes even before the Bihar elections were notified. Instead of cooperating with the Congress, the only national-level party within the opposition space, many of these leaders consistently targeted it, creating an atmosphere of mistrust and mutual suspicion. Congress too, with its own organisational issues and leadership decisions, contributed to this environment. The result was a fragmented alliance that never truly functioned as a coalition.

Apart from the decisive victory of the BJP-led NDA in Bihar, the other major takeaway is the bleak future of the INDIA bloc in its current form. This alliance should ideally have been preparing for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections while also organising itself for upcoming Assembly elections in important states such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. Instead, it now finds itself at a crossroads. The question before all its constituents is whether they should continue dragging an alliance marked by distrust or dissolve it and proceed separately. Should the Congress and the regional parties walk their own paths until the political situation compels them to regroup? Or should they attempt to keep the front alive despite all internal differences?

The defeat in Bihar should serve as a wake-up call for the entire opposition, especially the Congress. If they fail to recognise their weaknesses-most of which are self-created-and do not begin corrective action immediately, then the storm that hit them in Bihar will return repeatedly. In that case, all the rhetoric about stopping the Narendra Modi political juggernaut will remain empty talk and a futile exercise.

National Crisis

From the perspective of opposition unity and future survival, the near-total defeat in Bihar carries national-level consequences. Although the MGB was a state-specific alliance formed without the involvement of all major INDIA partners, it was still expected to reflect some degree of opposition coordination. Instead, the foundation for the current crisis was laid months before the polls, when none of the opposition parties made serious efforts to display unity against the NDA’s well-organised machinery.

The NDA campaigned as a coherent team with a clear strategy. By contrast, the MGB failed to present even a basic appearance of unity. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) began hesitating over seat-sharing terms, and Congress made what were widely viewed as unreasonable demands. Congress also resisted declaring Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Ministerial candidate early on, which further strained ties. Matters worsened when Rahul Gandhi showed limited interest in joint campaigning and then took a two-week foreign trip during the election period. These factors made the task far easier for the Modi-Nitish Kumar alliance. The results reflect this disarray, and the crisis now confronts the opposition more intensely than ever before. A new question has emerged: whether Congress, with its repeated inability to deliver during crucial electoral moments, is becoming a liability for its partners. On the other hand, the same question applies to the regional parties that have consistently undermined Congress and Rahul Gandhi since the formation of the INDIA bloc, inadvertently helping the BJP consolidate further.

Congress is indeed a national party and has traditionally served as the pivot for any united opposition formation. Its leader, Rahul Gandhi, naturally becomes the central figure of both criticism and expectation. But while questioning Congress is justified, absolving the regional leaders of their stubbornness, uncompromising positions, and refusal to cooperate would only deepen instability within the opposition and harm the national political balance.

The Way Forward

Given the divisions within both Congress and the regional parties, expecting an immediate revival of opposition unity is unrealistic. The real question is whether the parties should attempt to rebuild the INDIA alliance or simply allow it to collapse under its own weight. The answers to these questions will shape India’s political landscape in the coming years. What is evident at present is that the politics of opposition unity-intended to counter the Modi government’s strength-has entered a deep phase of uncertainty. Whether this uncertainty grows or recedes depends on how Congress and the regional power centres respond. They cannot afford endless delay, because time is running out.

Congress Outlook

The biggest dilemma before Congress is whether it should contest elections independently going forward or attempt once more to rebuild the opposition coalition. This depends entirely on whether the party leadership-primarily Rahul Gandhi-is willing to undertake serious organisational reforms. Although he often speaks of strengthening the party, his actions have not yet demonstrated meaningful progress in that direction. Whether Congress is in alliance or fighting alone, its organisational weaknesses will continue to undermine it unless they are addressed head-on. It is unclear why Sonia Gandhi is not taking a stronger interest in correcting these longstanding issues. Congress needs immediate and sweeping organisational changes. It must remove ineffective leaders, challenge entrenched groups within the party, induct fresh talent, and promote leaders who understand regional dynamics. The party must also return to the social-engineering model that once worked for it, rather than alienating one community while appeasing another. This has only benefited the BJP, which has used these divisions to strengthen its Hindutva narrative. Congress should work to weaken that narrative, not indirectly reinforce it.

Rahul Gandhi does possess sincerity and integrity-rare qualities in today’s politics. But such qualities alone cannot win elections. He must build a strong organisational base around them. The lack of communication within Congress ranks-from the top leadership down to the PCC level-is a major reason for its current crisis. The absence of someone like Ahmed Patel, who would listen to workers and leaders day and night, is deeply felt. His successor, K.C. Venugopal, lacks the communication skills and bandwidth to play that role. The culture of arrogance within the party has made matters worse.

For Congress to revive, Rahul Gandhi must personally improve communication with workers and state units, remain accessible, and build a system of accountability. No leader should be allowed to function without responsibility.

The writer is a political and national affairs analyst; views are personal