Battle beyond ballots: Assembly polls that could shape 2029 General Elections
Post 2014, since the advent of Narendra Modi phenomena at the national stage, every single election, held ever since, has assumed a different proportion. Even as the BJP under him is fixated on electoral victories using all possible means available and with a grand success rate, every poll, nevertheless, has a different connotation and meaning so far as the national polity is concerned. And every election is different from the previous one though all electoral battles are woven mostly around Modi-factor which is the BJP’s sole winning formula.
However, the current round of assembly elections being held in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry are not only being held on a different political canvas but also attached to it is the possible future contours that electoral politics can take in the run up to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. What makes this round of elections interesting, both from the BJP and Congress-led I.N.D.I.A combine point of view, is the strong potential to strengthen or weaken any of the two camps.
The significance of this round of elections lies in the fact that three of the poll-going states- Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal- are ruled by the opposition alliances, variedly led by one or the other regional parties. Assam, though, is governed by the BJP but it has a strong imprint of former Congresspersons and smaller regional or sub-regional groups. The overwhelming influence of the ex-Congress leaders and sidelining of the committed saffronites has caused serious consternation within the BJP, heightened by the high-handed approach and over-bearing presence of chief minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congressman himself.
In politically insignificant Puducherry also, BJP is piggy-riding a breakaway group of the Congress to be in power. Apart from Karnataka, the only state in Southern India where BJP could strongly entrench itself, the party created an opening for itself, through political machinations, to enter Kerala-Tamil Nadu axis via Puducherry.
There is a school of thought which has been touting that a victory in these states will open new territories, hitherto out of bounds, of influence for the BJP and thereby a big advantage for next general elections. They are also of the view that inability to form maiden governments in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will in no way hinder the party’s future journey or impact Mr Modi’s standing in any manner.
This hypothesis is sizably incorrect. As a matter of fact, and as is the BJP’s wont, the party has attached greater significance to this round of elections with Mr Modi spearheading the campaign. The reason behind this is the fact that three, all important, of the five states-Union Territories going to polls are ruled by I.N.D.I.A combine in its different formations- with or without its mainstay the Congress. Also, these have been the forbidden territories for the BJP so far and the current dispensation is making all out efforts to expand their domain.
What if BJP is unable to unsettle the opposition alliances in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal? The answer to this question has to be sought in the light of the fact that the saffron party had failed to secure a simple majority in 2024 Lok Sabha elections and is precarious perched on the shoulders of allies such as Mr Chandrababu Naidu’s Telegu Desam Party and Mr Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (u), for the survival of the Modi government.
While a victory in these states will definitely enliven spirits of the BJP and more so that of Modi-Amit Shah duo with new territories in their kitty, a loss, which is a strong probability, will make the BJP more vulnerable. The net result will be its greater dependence on allies to the disliking of the party’s top brass. With Ms Mamta Banerjee, in West Bengal, Mr M K Stalin (DMK), in Tamil Nadu and either Congress-led UDF or CPM-led LDF emerging victorious in the three states, it will have an unsettling effect on BJP at the national levels.
There is no denying the fact that there is much at stake in the ongoing round of assembly elections. Certainly, the stakes are higher for the opposition parties and that is the real story. It will be a misnomer to say that BJP has no stakes and that an electoral loss will not impact it. If the stakes are higher for the opposition, certainly these are high for the BJP.
The BJP is already constrained in its strongholds where it has been winning continuously, with a declining trend as witnessed in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, since 2014. It is direly in need of new greener pastures to offset the saturation effect faced by it in the party’s familiar territories. So, the significance of southern and eastern parts of the country for them. And hence the need to retain Assam, the gateway to North-East India and make inroads in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal which despite their best efforts in the past eluded them.
Although on many scales, particularly when facing Congress, the fight is unequal on many parameters including the huge resources, organizational strength and the administrative advantage which the BJP enjoys and exploits to the hilt, the regional opposition leaders in these states match Mr Modi move by move even on these counts. Notwithstanding the anti-incumbency (being the sitting chief ministers), most of them have the stature and organizational backup, without any factional strains which has become Congress’s perennial problem with no end in sight, to take on the BJP.
The opposition I.N.D.I.A combine is not contesting these elections in its original form and the alliance differs from state to state. In West Bengal, Kerala and Assam the Congress is pitted against the loosely associated combine partners. The Congress-DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu is unitedly facing the NDA combine wherein BJP plays a poor second fiddle to AIADMK splinter group and the sundry regional outfits. This alliance is also intact in the neighbouring Puducherry.
What will be the impact of I.N.D.I.A bloc emerging victorious in these states along with Congress winning Assam and Puducherry?
It will give a huge boost to the splintered opposition ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections. Regional leaders such as Ms Banerjee and Mr Stalin emerging strong and retaining their turf despite Mr Modi pulling all stops, and, more so, Congress even scraping through in Assam giving a boost to Mr Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, will really perk up the sagging opposition syndrome. There are many ifs and buts between victory of either the BJP or the Opposition alliance. There are certain new factors, such as the role of Election Commission of India in hurriedly ordering Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in the poll-bound states to remove “false or fake” voters, and the overenthusiasm shown by it, particularly in West Bengal, by transferring top administrative and police officials, which have come into play. The outcome will also depend on how these factors impact or influence the elections.
The writer is a veteran journalist and a policy analyst ; views are personal
