As the race for the upcoming assembly elections intensifies, the Bihar elections emerge as the BJP’s most formidable test since its victory in Delhi

As preparations for the upcoming assembly elections gather pace, the Bihar elections present the BJP with its most significant challenge since its triumph in Delhi. The key to success lies in maintaining unity within the NDA under all circumstances. However, the question remains: can this unity be sustained?

This concern looms large among NDA leaders. Amit Shah, often referred to as the BJP’s election Chanakya, faces a daunting task in Bihar. Much like the lone warrior Abhimanyu, Shah stands against an opposition alliance steeped in socialist ideology. His mission is to keep all NDA factions united and harness their collective strength.

Despite being aligned with the JDU, Shah must devise his unique strategies to secure victory. This entails testing new political equations daily and forging consensus among allies. The BJP is set to confront the formidable Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and the Left parties. Historically, Bihar has been a fertile ground for political experiments, but the challenges for the BJP here are substantial. The state lacks leaders with strong grassroots connections and effective leadership skills. Adding to BJP’s woes are the growing demands of its allies. According to Sangh sources, the party is inclined to retain the LJP in its traditional form, fearing that a split could fracture its vote base. Leaders like Pashupati Paras, who have long awaited electoral rewards, are now pinning hopes on the 2025 assembly elections.

However, with BJP and JDU unlikely to concede additional seats, Paras and Chirag Paswan must reconcile with the limited number allocated to the LJP in the NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement. Bihar’s political history underscores three key regions that have long shaped its political landscape: Munger in Ang, Muzaffarpur in Tirhut, and Nalanda in Magadh.

Presently, these regions remain central to the political contest. Mithilanchal, which gained prominence during the Mandal era and Lalu Yadav’s social engineering, also remains significant due to the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation. To counter these entrenched dynamics, the BJP plans to extend its influence to these regions.

Amit Shah, spearheading this strategy, has made multiple visits to these areas since the Lok Sabha elections. Notably, JDU-BJP has positioned Sanjay Jha, a leader known for his harmonious approach, as a key figure. Additionally, two Bhumihar leaders from Munger-Begusarai have been inducted into the cabinet to bolster the party’s presence in the region. Nalanda, a JDU stronghold, is also in BJP’s crosshairs. Winning Bihar is not just a desire but a necessity for Amit Shah and the BJP. The NDA secured 39 MPs from Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but JDU’s subsequent separation cost the alliance 16 seats. This loss has left Bihar BJP scrambling to retain its seats while identifying new opportunities for the upcoming elections.

Amit Shah’s electoral groundwork began in February last year, with his campaign kick-off in West Champaran. His focus has extended to constituencies like Shivhar, where BJP workers demand new candidates to replace underperforming veterans. In Seemanchal, a critical region where the MY equation holds sway, Shah faces the additional challenge of countering Prashant Kishore’s rising Jansuraj movement.

Acknowledging the need for change, the BJP is poised to prioritise fresh faces over its traditional leadership. This shift aligns with Shah’s vision of creating a “new BJP” in Bihar. The party’s strategy includes an intensified campaign led by Shah, whose upcoming visits are expected to finalise decisions and dispel speculation.The battle for Bihar will test the BJP’s adaptability and resilience, with Amit Shah’s leadership playing a decisive role in shaping the state’s political future.

(The writer is a senior journalist; views are personal)