The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by USD 5 billion to USD 9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments.
According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about USD 11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
The revision was prompted by an unusual surge in imports of the precious metal in November 2024, leading to record import of USD 69.95 billion and the highest ever trade deficit of USD 37.84 billion.
Noticing the jump, the commerce ministry started examining if there were any calculation or accounting mistakes in the compilation of the gold imports data.
Kolkata-based DGCIS is an organisation for the collection, compilation and dissemination of India’s trade statistics and commercial information.
The revised data published on the DGCIS website showed a difference of about USD 11.7 billion for April-November 2024-25.
The cumulative gold import during April-November 2024-25 worked out to be USD 37.38 billion as against the earlier estimates of USD 49.08 billion.
According to the revised DGCIS data, the inbound shipments in April, May, June, July, August, September and October 2024 were USD 2.95 billion (as against earlier estimate of USD 3.11 billion), USD 2.91 billion (USD 3.33 billion), USD 2.47 billion (USD 3.06 billion), USD 2.57 billion (USD 3.13 billion), USD 8.64 billion (USD 10.06 billion), USD 3.3 billion (USD 4.39 billion), and USD 4.67 billion (USD 7.12 billion), respectively.
After the revision, the trade deficit -- difference between imports and exports -- for November is expected to be revised downwards to USD 32.84 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in imports as well as trade deficit numbers for the last eight months of the current fiscal year.
During April-November 2023-24, gold imports stood at USD 32.92 billion.
A query sent to the commerce ministry on the issue remained unanswered.
Prices of the yellow metal have increased 17 per cent so far this fiscal year to Rs 80,000 per 10 gm in the national capital.
In the Budget, the government slashed the duty from 15 per cent to 6 per cent.
India’s gold imports, which have a bearing on the country’s current account deficit (CAD), surged 30 per cent to USD 45.54 billion in 2023-24.
India imports the largest amount of gold from Switzerland, which has about 40 per cent share, followed by the UAE (over 16 per cent), and South Africa (about 10 per cent).
The precious metal accounts for over 5 per cent of the country’s total imports.
India is the world’s second-biggest gold consumer after China. The imports mainly take care of the demand by the jewellery industry. Gems and jewellery exports last month declined 25.32 per cent year-on-year to USD 17.43 billion.
The country’s CAD widened marginally to USD 9.7 billion, or 1.1 per cent of the GDP, in April-June 2024 against USD 8.9 billion, or 1 per cent, in the year-ago period.
A current account deficit occurs when the value of goods and services imported and other payments exceed the value of export of goods and services and other receipts by a country in a particular period.
Commenting on the revision, economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said the DGCIS on January 8, “quietly revised without any explanation” India’s gold import figures for November 2024 by a significant USD 5 billion.
“This change has sharply lowered the reported year-on-year growth in gold imports for the month, reducing it from a staggering 331.4 per cent to a more modest 186.2 per cent,” he said, adding that in the interest of transparency, the government must clearly explain the rationale behind this revision.
“Was there an error in the initial data compilation, or did DGCIS uncover discrepancies after further verification? Without a clear explanation, such revisions erode trust in official statistics, especially when no changes were made to the data compilation rules in November,” Srivastava said.
He added that the revision also raises a critical question if there was a significant error in gold import data, and if similar discrepancies could exist in other commodity figures.
The government must proactively review trade data to ensure that this is an isolated case and not indicative of a broader data accuracy problem, he suggested.
India’s trade data is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and international agencies to assess the health of the economy.
“Frequent or unexplained revisions can damage the credibility of India’s economic reporting, leading to uncertainty in financial markets and eroding confidence in government institutions,” he said.
Earlier a similar discrepancy was noticed in 2011, when there was an over-reporting of export data on account of miss-classifications and double counting due to problems in the computer software, which was getting upgraded.
A discrepancy of about USD 9 billion was detected in the trade data for the April-November 2011 period.
Exports and imports take place mainly from two places -- airports and seaports.
All exporters fill shipping bills as per customs rules before a consignment is ready for imports/exports. Export data is collected from that bill as all details are there. And for imports, there is a bill of entry.
