The South China Sea remains a flashpoint of escalating tensions as China intensifies its aggressive maritime activities, targeting nations like the Philippines

CNS Admiral Dinesh Tripathi during his customary briefing of media before Navy Day last week expressed concern about Chinese maritime activities in the South China Sea, all of which China claims. Two countries it especially targets in SCS are Taiwan and the Philippines in whose waters it has indulged in offensive naval actions. It signed a defence agreement with the US in 1951; last month it signed an intelligence and technology agreement facilitating satellite intelligence and access to high-grade US weaponry following President Marcos promulgating Maritime Zone Act and Archipelago Sea Lanes Act that China denounced and summoned its envoy. US Defence Secretary Llyod Austin told his counterpart Gilberto Teodoro: We are more than allies; we’re family.

The week-long ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Laos from 6 to 12 October witnessed stern exchanges between China, the US and the Philippines especially over the South China Sea at a time when the West is seized with Ukraine and West Asia crises, even as President-elect Trump is issuing multiple threats. While Chinese Premier Li Qiang blamed ‘external forces” for interfering in regional affairs, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US is concerned about increasingly dangerous and unlawful activities of China in disputed SCS. Marcos complained to ASEAN leaders that his country continues to be subjected to Chinese bullying and intimidation.

Earlier that week PM Narendra Modi attended the 19th India-ASEAN meeting and made a powerful presentation of  Delhi’s Act East policy and criticised China for its expansionist policy in SCS. The Chinese have been testing the waters in the Philippines EEZ in SCS   Filipinos call the West Philippines Sea with several forays against Filipino boats to check how far the US will go in its support. Filipino vessels in their EEZ have faced intimidation and bullying by Chinese coast guard ships over the dispute Thomas Shoal 2 where Sierra Madera a Philippine vessel has been grounded since 1999 to assert its sovereignty.

The Chinese are equally active and defiant against Japan in the East China Sea and recently crossed the First Island chain for the first time with an aircraft carrier and two warships.

Taiwan continues to face periodic challenges as China relentlessly violates the 2016 UNCLOS ruling that the Philippines secured over China’s illegal claim to the South China Sea under its 9-dash line. During my interaction with Philippines security experts in Manila in June, clashes over the resupply of a marooned vessel in Thomas Shoal 2 had reached the climax; and some suggested it could be a feint for Taiwan. The incident had ruffled feathers in Manila with calls for invoking the US Mutual Defence Agreement which gets triggered only during armed external attack.

Clashes have occurred between the two sides and despite talks and a hotline, no compromise was reached. On September 28 Chinese Navy missile boat fired laser beams at a Philippines Cessna Patrol aircraft while Filipino coast guard vessels continued to be chased. Chinese insisted resupply of the marooned ship would happen under their supervision and in a mid-August clash, several Chinese ships blocked passage of Filipino supplies for the stranded ship.

The Chinese have said that the Philippines ship is illegally stranded/marooned at the disputed Thomas Shoal atoll which it owns as part of its claim to SCS. China calls it Xianbin Reef which is 150 km west of the Philippines island of Palawan. As before, it had repeatedly said it would promulgate its maritime laws including the use of firearms and arrest offenders in defence of its sovereignty and national interest. Teodoro said at the end of August that Thomas Shoal is a sovereignty issue of the Philippines.

According to South China Morning Post (September 16), Admiral Samuel Paparo, US Indo-Pacific Command accompanied by Gen Romero Brawner, Chief of Philippines armed forces, said there is a range of options as counter-measures for the Chinese grey zone tactics adding the US is ready to escort Philippines ships in SCS in event of a spike in hostilities. Brawner said they would seek help if the Chinese blocked food supplies and soldiers were dying of hunger. In Manila, I was asked whether re-supply by other means like helicopters was feasible and had suggested discussing it with their US allies.  Meanwhile,  Paparo took a video call with Gen Wu Yanan, PLA Southern Theatre Commander responsible for SCS and Taiwan.

Wu attended an International conference at the Indo- Pacific command in Hawaii in  September even as Teodoro took the contingency of escalation to the next level, of the Chinese towing away the grounded Sierra Madera which would constitute an act of war; invoking a defence pact with the US. A code of conduct for ASEAN in SCS has been in the works for two decades but is far from fruition.

It is akin to India’s LAC/border with China that Beijing has refused to resolve as it would put a stop to grey zone tactics and salami slicing. India has voiced clear support for the Philippines during the June 17 clash with the Chinese coast guard and Foreign Minister Jaishankar has been on a goodwill visit. Delhi has sold Brahmos anti-ship missiles to Manila, the first country to buy them. Former Defence Secretary, Giridhar Aramane was in Manila recently for the fifth Joint defence cooperation dialogue. While Taiwan may not be on the cards, Thomas Shoal 2 could end up in Chinese possession as  Mischief Reef 24 km north of it did in 2012.

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal)