Challenging the BJP's hegemony in Uttar Pradesh is no easy task, even if Rahul Gandhi and his sibling Priyanka Gandhi throw their hats into the UP electoral rings. However, such a scenario can help improve the INDIA alliance's overall prospects, writes Navin Upadhyay
TThe buzz that former party chief Rahul Gandhi would once again be stepping into the electoral arena from the family bastion of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh could add a new dimension to the politics of the politically most vital state of India. While such a scenario would undoubtedly enthuse the Congress cadres, his presence in Amethi might not single-handedly reverse Congress's fortunes in the state, where its standing has been waning for decades.
However, the added possibility of Priyanka Gandhi's potential electoral venture from the state underscores the Congress party's resolve to embark on the journey of reclaiming its diminishing clout in this politically pivotal Hindi heartland state. But, beyond the confines of the Congress party, the decision to field both Rahul and Priyanka from Uttar Pradesh carries broader implications. It signifies a strategic move by the INDIA alliance, aimed at putting forth a formidable challenge to the well-entrenched Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been riding the wave of successive Lok Sabha and assembly victories since 2014.
The widespread speculation that Bihar's Chief Minister Kumar and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge might also throw their hats into the electoral ring in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 showcases a determined effort by both the Congress and its INDIA alliance partners to disrupt the BJP's stronghold over the state's political landscape. Their strategy revolves around making inroads into the Dalit and OBC (Other Backward Classes) communities while consolidating the Muslim vote bank.
Recent trends, particularly post the first phase of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, point towards a decisive shift in minority voters' preferences towards the Congress. An assertive Congress presence in Uttar Pradesh could play a role in avoiding fragmentation within the minority votes, especially in the context of parties like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, who split the Muslim votes on several seats in the last assembly polls in 2022.
Although not winning any seats, the AIMIM's presence succeeded in disrupting Samajwadi Party-led alliance candidates' prospects in at least several seats.
While the INDIA alliance relies on Congress to solidify the minority vote base, leaders such as Kharge and Nitish Kumar are aiming to make a dent in the Dalit and extremely backward caste votes. This dynamic aims to create a more challenging scenario for the BJP. With Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party's core Yadav votes, EBC votes, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal's (RLD) Jat votes in Western Uttar Pradesh, the alliance hopes to counterbalance the BJP's influence.
The INDIA alliance might also witness the inclusion of Chandrashekhar Azad in the coming weeks to further chip away at Mayawati's Dalit vote stronghold. This multi-pronged approach underscores the significance of Rahul Gandhi's return and Priyanka Gandhi's potential entry. It forms a pivotal part of the big-bang strategy of the INDIA alliance, designed to disrupt the prevailing political equilibrium in Uttar Pradesh.
However, challenging the BJP's hegemony in the state is no straightforward task. Recent municipal polls have demonstrated the BJP's sturdy position, seemingly unshaken. Adding to its advantage is the forthcoming inauguration of the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya in January 2024, right before the elections. The opposition alliance, while facing a daunting task, can take solace in the fact that the Samajwadi Party made gains in the last year's assembly polls, recouping some lost ground.
In the last year’s assembly elections, the BJP secured an increase of nearly two percentage points compared to its 2017 tally, elevating its vote share from 39.7% in 2017 to 41.6% this time. While the Samajwadi Party's vote share witnessed an upward jump from 21.8% to 32%, the disparity remained substantial. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) faced a decline, dropping from 22.2% to 12.7%, and the Congress saw its vote share plummet from 6.3% to a meager 2.4%, falling even below the Rashtriya Lok Dal's (RLD) 3% share.
It's crucial to recognize that Lok Sabha elections and assembly polls have their dynamics. In comparison to the 2017 assembly polls, the BJP's vote share experienced an eight percent surge in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In contrast, the combined vote share of the Samajwadi Party (SP), BSP, and RLD, who had formed a pre-poll alliance, witnessed a significant decline. Even the Congress faced a noticeable drop in its vote share compared to 2017. Riding high on the popularity of the Prime Minister, the BJP witnessed its vote share rising from 41.57% in the 2017 elections to an impressive 49.6%.
The political landscape in Uttar Pradesh is complex and dynamic, where electoral narratives are multifaceted. The return of Rahul Gandhi and the potential entry of Priyanka Gandhi are undoubtedly pivotal elements of the INDIA alliance's strategy. However, the road to challenging the BJP's dominance is far from straightforward. The upcoming months will be marked by relentless political maneuvering, calculated moves, and strategic decisions that will shape the destiny of millions.
As the Congress endeavors to rewrite its narrative in Uttar Pradesh, it must confront not only the BJP but also the intricacies of caste dynamics, regional affiliations, and the aspirations of a diverse populace. The unfolding chapters in this political saga will reveal whether Congress and its allies can successfully disrupt the prevailing order and establish a new equilibrium that resonates with the people of Uttar Pradesh. The story is in motion, the stakes are high, and the climax of this political epic remains yet to be unveiled.
Within the Congress circles, there's a buzz surrounding the possibility of Priyanka Gandhi contesting from the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency, which is presently represented by her mother, the former Congress president Sonia Gandhi. This speculation arises from the potential retirement of Sonia Gandhi due to health concerns.
Amethi, traditionally a stronghold of the Gandhi family, experienced a seismic shift in the 2019 general election when Smriti Irani of the BJP defeated Rahul Gandhi, who had held the seat since 2004. Currently, Rahul Gandhi represents Wayanad in Kerala as an MP. Meanwhile, Sonia Gandhi remains the sole Congress parliamentarian from Uttar Pradesh, representing Rae Bareli. Following the state polls last year, the party's presence in the state legislature dwindled to a mere two seats out of the 403-member UP House.
The newly-appointed UP congress president Ajay Rai, belonging to the upper-caste Bhumihar community, had previously contested against Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi in both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. His appointment as the UP Congress chief signals the Congress strategy to also aggressively woo the upper caste votes.
Apart from these developments, the Congress also hopes to leverage the second phase of Rahul Gandhi-led 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' to invigorate its cadres and infuse new energy into the INDIA alliance in Uttar Pradesh. There's a likelihood that Rahul will dedicate nearly two weeks to the state during the upcoming phase of his yatra, commencing from Gujarat. During the first phase of this yatra, Rahul covered just four districts in UP, walking over 130km from Ghaziabad, and encompassing parts of Shamli and Baghpat before entering Haryana.
It is anticipated that this time, Rahul's presence in UP during the second phase of the Bharat Jodo yatra would span over two weeks and cover around two dozen parliamentary constituencies.
However, the Congress faces a substantial challenge in Uttar Pradesh. Beyond aiding the INDIA alliance, the party cannot aspire to emerge as a significant contender solely by fielding Rahul, Priyanka, or Kharge from the state.
Uttar Pradesh has undergone a profound political transformation over the last three decades. The Congress has witnessed a gradual decline during this period, while the BJP and regional forces have ascended. This transformation is evident in the shifting vote shares of these parties in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
The Congress secured 54 Lok Sabha seats in the 1991 Lok Sabha polls, but by 1996, the SP and BSP had solidified their positions, heralding the rise of regional powerhouses. The SP secured 32 seats, while the Congress grappled with maintaining its influence amidst this evolving scenario.
The 2000s brought further fragmentation, with the BSP gaining prominence, particularly in the 2002 Assembly elections. The BJP, too, continued to make inroads, culminating in its historic performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, where it secured a remarkable 71 seats. This ascent stood in stark contrast to the Congress, which witnessed a consistent decline during this period, struggling to sustain its position in the state's political hierarchy.
Several factors contributed to the Congress's decline and the rise of new powerhouses in Uttar Pradesh. One significant aspect was the emergence of caste-based politics. The SP, under Mulayam Singh Yadav, and the BSP, under Mayawati's leadership, capitalized on caste affiliations, resonating with specific voter segments. The Congress's inability to effectively address these caste dynamics cost it crucial support.
The leadership vacuum within Congress also played a pivotal role in its decline. Infighting, factionalism, and a lack of a cohesive strategy led to weakened unity and credibility. As a result, charismatic leaders from regional parties, like Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, filled the leadership void, further overshadowing the Congress' influence.
Shifts in voter aspirations also contributed to the transformation. The electorate sought leaders who could address immediate concerns, provide effective governance, and align with their identity. The Congress's failure to meet these evolving expectations pushed voters toward parties that resonated more effectively with their needs, like the BJP's development-oriented agenda.
As the BJP continues to consolidate its stronghold over Uttar Pradesh's politics, the Congress is faced with the daunting task of reshaping its narrative, rejuvenating its leadership, and reestablishing a connection with the electorate. Its resurgence hinges on its ability to learn from past experiences, navigate the intricate web of the state's socio-political dynamics, and position itself as a pertinent and appealing choice for the state's diverse population.
The return of Rahul Gandhi may inject vitality into the Congress, yet it may take considerable time to rebuild the party and reclaim its support base. However, the Congress's proactive stance in Uttar Pradesh could enhance the prospects of the INDIA alliance.
(Navin Upadhyay is the Executive Editor of the Pioneer)
