The Southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Monday as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) bringing heavy rain to several parts in the State and marking the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season in the country.  This year, monsoon rainfall would likely get 102 per cent more rain between June and September than what the IMD forecast in April.

Further away, from the west coast a cyclone Nisarga is brewing in the Arabian Sea and likely to hit north Maharashtra as well as the Gujarat coast by the June 3. The cyclone will bring heavy rainfall on coastal areas of Mumbai and Gujarat and may inundate low-lying areas.

Announcing the arrival of Southwest monsoon in Kerala, Madhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, on Monday said India would get 102 per cent more than between June and September.

“Most parts of India, except for the north-east are expected to get more rain than normal. North-west India is expected to get 107 per cent of its normal, Central India-103 per cent and 102 per cent over south peninsula. North-eastern India, including Bihar, West Bengal, is expected to get only 96 per cent of its long term average. Rain in July were likely to be 3 per cent above what’s usual for the month but August would see a 3 per cent decline,” Rajeevan said while releasing second Long Range forecast for southwest monsoon 2020. 

In last 24 hours, most parts of Kerala have reported heavy to very heavy rainfall.

“While unclear so far, the presence of the cyclone could delay the progress of the monsoon and put it into a ‘hiatus,’ he said.

The IMD also stated that some possibility of development of weak La Niña conditions in the later part of the monsoon season that is good for the monsoon.

According to IMD, as of June 1, the cyclone is located about 360 km southwest of Panjim (Goa), 670 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 900 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat). It will cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and Daman during the evening of June 3.

Unlike cyclone Amphan which was categorised as an extremely severe cyclonic storm that devastated parts of West Bengal the cyclone Nisarga is expected to be less intense when it hits the coast.  Konkan and Goa are likely to receive extremely heavy rainfall in isolated places from June 3. Parts of Maharashtra will also experience heavy rainfall on June 3-4. High waves in the range of 2.3 - 6.5 meters are forecast till 11:30 pm of June 2 along the coast of Maharashtra-- from Malvan to Vasai. Madhavan said the IMD latest cyclone update expects it to balloon into a “severe cyclone” by the middle of the week.

In view of developing cyclone situation in Arabian sea, the National Disaster Response Force has deployed 10 teams in Maharashtra- three in Mumbai, two in Palghar, one each in Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg, 11 in Gujarat, one in Dadar & Nagar Haveli and one Daman & Diu.