West Bengal: Will it be Mamata all the way again?
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is likely to secure a historic fourth term in office, according to the latest opinion poll projections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is gaining ground in the state and is ambitious enough to challenge Mamata’s position. Meanwhile, both the Congress and the Communist Party of India (CPI) have lost their influence. The key message for Mamata is that the BJP’s rise has come at the expense of these traditional parties.
The political contest in Bengal has intensified, rendering this election a significant moment for the state. This dynamic fosters a highly competitive political landscape. The TMC holds a clear advantage, with 119 seats categorised as very strong and an additional 95 as strong. Mamata Banerjee is facing her former aide and BJP candidate, Suvendu Adhikari, in the Nandigram constituency. The BJP has projected Suvendu as its chief ministerial face.
The BJP has concentrated its campaign on criticising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) for Mamata Banerjee’s 15 years in office. Last week, Union Home Minister Amit Shah released a chargesheet against the West Bengal government, addressing Banerjee as “Mamata ji” or “Didi” while expressing his criticisms of her leadership.
In the 2021 West Bengal elections, the TMC achieved a significant victory, securing 215 seats. This demonstrated a notable political shift. In contrast, the BJP won 77 seats, highlighting its increasing influence in the state.
Voting patterns along religious and caste lines reveal how different communities support the TMC and the BJP, making every vote crucial to the election’s outcome.
Regions like Medinipur and Malda, with high seat turnover, are key battlegrounds that could determine the election’s direction.
Banerjee has called on voters to see her as the candidate for all 294 state Assembly seats, not just individual TMC candidates. She accused the BJP of trying to illegally add voters from Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal’s electoral rolls, claiming they plan to transport these voters by train using methods similar to those used in Bihar.
The slogan “Jai Maa Durga” has replaced “Jai Shree Ram”. This change highlights the importance of the Goddess in Bengal’s culture.
Around 125 constituencies in West Bengal have mainly Muslim populations, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) winning over 100, giving it a strong advantage. Unlike in the 2021 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now focusing less on religious themes in its campaign.
The BJP aims to avoid religious divisions in the upcoming elections, unlike in 2021. With over 30 per cent of voters being Muslim, past divisions have harmed its support. To soften its approach, it now uses the term “outsiders”. This insiders-versus-outsiders theme gives Mamata an advantage.
Mamata, a determined leader, rose to power in 2011 by ousting a Communist-led government that had ruled West Bengal for 34 years and has since retained her position.
The TMC is not very structured and lacks strict rules. It also lacks a strong set of beliefs. Like many regional parties in India, it depends on the strong leadership of Mamata Banerjee, who is affectionately known as the “fire goddess” by her supporters.
A BJP victory in West Bengal would give the party a significant edge, especially since Narendra Modi, despite being the most popular leader in India, has struggled in state elections. Winning in a state with a sizeable Muslim electorate would carry strong symbolic weight and diminish any remaining chances for the fragmented opposition to challenge Modi’s organised party in the 2024 general elections.
The disagreement over fish, considered lucky in Bengal and important for starting new projects, escalated when the Trinamool Congress accused the BJP of wanting to ban non-vegetarian food. Mamata Banerjee has accused BJP agents of flooding West Bengal’s electoral rolls with fake Form 6 applications to include outsiders. She urged the Election Commission to protect democratic rights. Despite significant resources, the BJP’s efforts to secure Fort William and establish its first government in West Bengal have not reached the halfway mark in the Assembly election.
The campaign trail has shifted from speeches to political intimacy, with candidates conveying a single message: “I am not above you; I am one among you.”
A slew of welfare schemes — bicycles and scholarships for students, cash transfers for girl students to continue education, and health insurance — has ensured that Banerjee’s populist appeal remains unblemished. She remains popular with women voters; some 17 per cent of her candidates in this election are women.
Despite the ailing Communists stitching up an alliance with a Muslim cleric and the enfeebled Congress to swing votes away from the main contestants, the battle for West Bengal is singularly bipolar. To win the state, a party has to capture 45 per cent of the popular vote. Most analysts believe that Mamata Banerjee will win. She has an edge over her rivals right now. The BJP is working on the ground with the RSS’s help, and top BJP leaders are in Kolkata. Mamata has learned from the CPI(M) how to stay in power. Whether these strategies will work for her this time is the big question.
The writer, is a popular columnist ; views are personal
