The dangerous endgame of the Iran-US-Israel war

It has been more than two weeks since the US attacked Iran with missiles and stealth bombers, hoping to end the war within days. But, given the way the war is progressing, US calculations have gone haywire. While Iran has borne the brunt of missile attacks — its supreme leader killed, its strategic targets hit, oil installations struck, and even the civilian population affected — yet it refuses to cave in or implode. On the contrary, it is showing resilience that no one had imagined. It has struck US bases in the Gulf, attacked Israel by penetrating the Iron Dome, and paralysed the USS Abraham Lincoln. Its missiles are smartly dodging interceptors and hitting targets at will. Its swarm fleet of drones is creating havoc, and this too after almost five decades of sanctions.

Meanwhile, the US looks isolated in the war, as no country-not even its allies in Europe, such as the UK, France, Germany, and Spain — is willing to toe its line. To make matters worse, Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 25 per cent of world oil passes in commercial carriers. The regional war has escalated into a global crisis, as countries are running out of gas and crude oil with no end in sight.

So, two weeks on, the million barrel question is: who is actually winning? The answer, however, is not straight forward. In war, the first casualty is truth, as both sides claim victory and attempt to hold the moral high ground. From Washington’s perspective, its campaign has been decisive and crippled Iran. The United States and Israel have launched extensive airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including a major assault on Kharg Island-Iran’s crucial energy hub in the Persian Gulf.

According to American officials, more than 90 military targets were destroyed in a single operation, severely weakening Iran’s naval and missile capabilities. For President Donald Trump, this constitutes a strategic victory. His administration argues that Iran’s command networks, air defences, and key bases have been decimated in record time. Tehran’s strategy has shifted from direct confrontation to strategic denial — ensuring that even if it cannot win militarily, its adversaries cannot claim a stable victory either. By threatening shipping and restricting passage for adversarial vessels, Iran has managed to transform a regional war into a global economic crisis. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, financial markets have turned volatile, and governments across Europe and Asia are scrambling to secure energy supplies. This asymmetry explains the paradox of the current conflict. Militarily, the United States and Israel may have the upper hand. Strategically, however,

Iran still holds a powerful card: escalation. The primary objective of the US assault was to annihilate the top leadership and effect a regime change, installing a puppet regime to gain total control of the Persian Gulf. This has not happened, and Iran has shown no inclination to surrender or negotiate, whereas the US and Israel are facing public wrath for having started a war they may not decisively win. Post-World War, the US has not won a war that can be called complete. With both sides digging their heels in, the chances are that the war may be prolonged, as the world pays the price for no fault of its own.