India’s carrier fleet at crossroads as China accelerates naval expansion

On 5 November, China commissioned its third aircraft carrier, Fujian, at its home port in Sanya on Hainan Island in the presence of President Xi Jinping. Displacing 80,000 tonnes, the carrier is capable of launching fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets and KJ-600 Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft using the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS). This marks a significant moment in global carrier aviation and shipbuilding.

At the same time, China is rapidly constructing a fourth aircraft carrier-a nuclear-powered supercarrier equipped with an EMALS system. In contrast, India, despite its long history of carrier aviation, inducted its first Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC-I), INS Vikrant, only in September 2022, while the next indigenous carrier is yet to take shape. Until now, the United States was the only country to have deployed EMALS, on the Gerald R Ford-class carrier. However, it has faced major issues with the reliability of both the catapults and the weapons elevators. Commissioned in 2017, the Ford undertook its first combat deployment only in 2023. Three more carriers of this class, intended to replace the ageing Nimitz-class, are under various stages of construction. The Ford currently operates F-18s and not the fifth-generation F-35s. Amid these delays, in late October, US President Donald Trump stated that he intended to sign an executive order requiring steam-powered catapults and hydraulic elevators on future carriers. The order has not been issued, but the remark highlights the continuing teething troubles. China, meanwhile, appears to have resolved similar challenges by directly adopting EMALS and bypassing steam catapults.

China’s pace of shipbuilding is unmatched. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is already the world’s largest fleet numerically, with more than 370 platforms, and is projected to field about 435 ships by 2030. China’s first carrier, Liaoning, was commissioned in 2012; the second, Shandong, was launched in 2017 and commissioned in 2019; and Fujian was launched in 2022. In January this year, China also unveiled its first Type 076 amphibious assault ship, displacing more than 40,000 tonnes-roughly the size of a medium carrier — and capable of launching fixed-wing aircraft.

India’s Navy, which has decades of experience in carrier operations, currently operates two mid-sized carriers-INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant. However, both carriers face a shortage of fighter jets. This has been a persistent irony: earlier, India had jets but no carrier; now it has two carriers but insufficient aircraft to operate from both simultaneously. Unless urgent decisions are taken, the cycle is likely to continue. Work on the Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC-I) began with design efforts in 1999. The keel was laid in 2009, and the ship was launched in 2013 as Vikrant, named after India’s first aircraft carrier, which was decommissioned in 1997. The project represented a steep learning curve in carrier design and construction.

Speaking aboard INS Vikrant on Diwali, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the ship represents Bharat’s military strength, noting that even its name had caused concern in Pakistan in recent months. Soon after Vikrant entered service, the Navy proposed IAC-II, conceived as a repeat of the current design with modest upgrades, at an estimated cost of `40,000 crore. The Defence Procurement Board examined the proposal in September 2023, but no progress has been made since. Cochin Shipyard Limited, which built Vikrant, has stated that a similar carrier would take 8-10 years to construct.

A critical misconception must be corrected: IAC-II will not serve as India’s third operational carrier. By the time it is inducted, INS Vikramaditya will be nearing the end of its service life. Former Navy Chief Admiral R. Hari Kumar acknowledged this during Aero India 2023, stressing that an aircraft carrier is central to command and control of maritime operations and to projecting power on land, at sea, and in the air. A carrier remains the ultimate instrument of power projection. Sea control is essential for India, as sea denial occurs only during wartime. Earlier, the Navy envisioned IAC-II as a larger 65,000-tonne carrier with a steam catapult system and possibly electric propulsion. However, such a design would involve a long developmental timeline and higher technological risks. This was one reason the Navy shifted to the more practical option of repeating the Vikrant design.

The Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (TPCR) 2025, released recently, lists several capabilities for future development and procurement, including an aircraft carrier, an Automatic Carrier Landing System, two EMALS systems, restraining and arresting gear, nuclear propulsion for future carriers and large warships, among other technologies. However, most of these systems will not be ready in time for IAC-II and are more appropriate for a future IAC-III.

The Fighter Aircraft Crisis

Both Indian carriers currently operate MiG-29K jets. Fewer than 40 of the 45 aircraft procured from Russia remain in service. Because the refurbishment of Vikramaditya was delayed, the jets operated from shore until 2013. Since induction, the MiG-29K fleet has faced persistent technical issues and low availability rates. Their phase-out is scheduled to begin in 2034. Given these limitations, the Navy issued a tender in 2017 for 54 carrier-borne fighter aircraft. This was later reduced to 26 after DRDO proposed developing the indigenous Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF), building on experience from the Naval Light Combat Aircraft programme. At DefExpo 2022, officials announced an ambitious schedule aiming for induction around 2035. However, there is still no clarity on the programme, as formal project approval remains pending.

In April, India signed a nearly `64,000-crore Inter-Governmental Agreement with France for 26 Rafale-M fighters: 22 single-seat carrier-capable jets and four twin-seat trainers, which cannot operate from carriers. Deliveries are expected between mid-2028 and 2030. However, by the early 2040s, the Navy may again face a shortage of aircraft if the MiG-29K phase-out proceeds on schedule. The alternative would be to retain some ageing jets in service, similar to how the Indian Air Force extended the life of the MiG-21 fleet.

he Navy has long maintained that a three-carrier force is essential-one for each coast and one in refit.

Given the current trajectory, this goal remains distant. Further delays in decision-making could risk India losing the hard-earned capability of designing, constructing, and operating carriers, similar to the setback in submarine building experienced in the 1980s. This situation calls for a three-fold plan. First, accelerate the construction of IAC-II without further delays or procedural hurdles. Second, urgently advance the development of the TEDBF, given the significant time required to design, test, and operationalise a carrier-borne fighter. Third, based on progress in the first two areas, plan and synchronise the development of critical technologies-such as nuclear or electric propulsion and EMALS-for a future larger carrier that can operate indigenous fighters.

The Indo-Pacific region is expected to be crowded with aircraft carriers within a decade. For India to maintain its strategic relevance and maritime edge well into the 2040s, the time to plan, prioritise, and act is now.

Dinakar Peri is Fellow, Security Studies at Carnegie India; views are personal