IMD warns of weakest monsoon in three years

Below-normal rainfall may strain water supply, Power generation and agriculture, while Risking drought

For the first time in three years, India is headed for a below-normal monsoon season, with seasonal rain during June to September projected at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned on Friday. It also forecasts that the country will see above-normal heatwave days.

Taking note of the forecast, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has asked State Governments to brace for possible low rainfall or other challenging weather conditions in view of El Nino threat. Chouhan said the agriculture ministry is chalking out contingency plans to deal with any eventuality and asserted that there is adequate availability of seeds and fertilisers to meet demand during the upcoming kharif season that will begin from June with the onset of southwest monsoon.

The weather office also cautioned that below-normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystem sustainability, along with increased risks of drought, heat stress, and pressure on drinking water resources. Lower-than-normal rains may also force farmers to rely more heavily on diesel-powered irrigation pumps, lifting fuel demand at a time when the Iran war has already affected energy supplies.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal (less than 94 pc of LPA),” said Director General of Meteorology at the IMG, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

During June 2026, below normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except over some parts of Northwest India, Northeast India and the South Peninsula and isolated pockets of central India where normal to above normal rainfall is likely.

According to IMD, the estimate carries a model error margin of plus or minus 4 per cent and points to a higher likelihood of deficient rainfall across the country during the season. The revision marks a significant worsening of the outlook.

While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall, he said.

Mohapatra said El Nino is confirmed to hit India during the monsoon season, bringing the rainfall levels to the lowest the country has seen in the last 3 years. El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September. Mohapatra also laid out how the incoming El Nino will strengthen in the coming months. The concerns are being amplified by a growing consensus among international weather agencies.

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. For India, the developments are particularly significant because El Nino has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, more frequent heatwaves and increased stress on agriculture and water resources.

The long-period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years.

The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal — less than 92 pc of the LPA, he said. If the monsoon season sees less than 90 pc of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’.

Speaking about the monsoon’s onset over Kerala, Mohapatra said it is expected to happen in the next seven days.

Typically, Kerala witnesses the onset of southwest monsoon around June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season in the country.

The weather department also highlighted that in June, above normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.