How BJP is rebuilding its Punjab playbook from Haryana

Punjab’s next Assembly election is still some distance away, but the political undercurrents are already shifting. Beneath the daily churn of protests, law-and-order debates and Centre-state sparring, the Bharatiya Janata Party is quietly recalibrating its Punjab strategy with the patience of a party that plans beyond

election cycles. Central to this recalibration is an increasingly visible — and carefully positioned — figure: Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini.

To a casual observer, Saini’s frequent presence in Punjab may appear routine or symbolic. To political observers tracking the BJP’s long-term strategy, however, it signals a deliberate attempt to reshape the party’s Punjab narrative — away from dependence on borrowed political capital and towards building a culturally resonant, indigenous alternative to the state’s dominant parties.

The BJP’s current marginal position in Punjab often masks a more layered electoral journey. In 2007 and 2012, the party was firmly embedded in power as the junior partner of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), holding key portfolios and commanding influence in urban, Hindu-dominated constituencies such as Amritsar, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Pathankot and Hoshiarpur. SAD dominated rural Sikh heartlands; the BJP complemented it without challenging Sikh political leadership.

The collapse of the alliance before the 2022 Assembly elections proved costly. Contesting 73 seats as part of an NDA configuration with the Punjab Lok Congress and SAD (Sanyukt), the BJP won just two seats. Yet even that poor outcome concealed a detail party strategists continue to emphasise - the BJP’s vote share rose to 6.6 per cent, up 1.2 percentage points from its previous standalone performance.

That trend became far more pronounced in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While the BJP failed to win a single parliamentary seat — down from two in 2019 - its vote share surged to 18.56 per cent from 9.63 per cent, a jump of nearly nine percentage points in five years. The party finished second in three Lok Sabha constituencies and led in 23 Assembly segments. For a party with only two MLAs, these figures are not markers of irrelevance. They reflect what the BJP sees as under-conversion: votes without organisational depth to translate them into seats. Bridging this gap —through sustained, culturally calibrated outreach — is where Nayab Singh Saini enters the picture.

Why Nayab Singh Saini Matters

For the BJP, Saini is not merely a campaigner but a strategic asset. His rise following Haryana’s Assembly elections has enhanced his standing within the party. His relevance to Punjab, however, lies in a convergence of identities and optics the BJP considers crucial. Saini belongs to the Saini community, classified under the Other Backward Classes (OBC). The BJP has been actively courting non-Jat OBC groups as part of a broader social consolidation strategy. In Punjab, Hindu OBCs form a significant segment of the electorate, particularly in select belts, making this outreach politically consequential. Equally highlighted by BJP strategists is Saini’s personal background — his mother belongs to the Sikh community — along with his consistent adoption of Punjabi cultural symbols. Wearing a turban in Punjab, visits to gurdwaras, comfort with Punjabi dialects, and visible engagement with Sikh religious spaces are being projected as bridges to both Sikh and Punjabi Hindu communities, especially in culturally intertwined border areas. Unlike leaders parachuted into Punjab for episodic campaigns, Saini arrives with administrative authority as a serving chief minister, lending weight to his presence beyond rhetoric.

Saini’s engagements in Punjab have not been random. His outreach has been concentrated in border and semi-border districts adjoining Haryana — including Zirakpur, Dera Bassi, Sangrur and Sunam — and extending into parts of the Doaba and Puadh belts. These regions have notable OBC populations and long-standing social and cultural interactions with neighbouring Haryana. The focus on these areas reflects an attempt to work within familiar cultural zones rather than forcing abrupt political expansion elsewhere. BJP insiders describe this as incremental consolidation rather than immediate electoral overreach. A defining feature of Saini’s Punjab presence has been cultural signalling. His appearances in traditional attire, participation in gurdwara events, and attendance at Sikh religious commemorations are framed as gestures of respect. References to shared history and kinship — often describing Punjab as the ‘elder brother’ — are carefully chosen to soften political edges.

Even on sensitive issues such as the SYL canal or Chandigarh’s status, Saini’s tone has remained conciliatory rather than combative. The emphasis has consistently been on shared legacy and coexistence, not assertion.

Governance as Political Messaging

The BJP’s Punjab strategy also leans heavily on showcasing Haryana’s governance under Saini. The Haryana government’s decision to provide jobs to families of 1984 Sikh riot victims, legislative commemorations of Sikh Gurus, and welfare schemes such as the Lado Lakshmi Yojana promising `2,100 per month to women are presented as tangible governance outcomes.

The political contrast is implicit rather than explicit. Punjab’s AAP government had promised `1,000 per month to women in 2022 — a promise yet to materialise. As Haryana rolls out its scheme, the BJP expects comparisons to emerge organically. Saini’s farmer outreach follows a similar template. References to MSP procurement of multiple crops, sugarcane pricing, and quicker insurance payouts under the PMFBY are delivered not as defences of past policy but as examples of functioning governance. His interactions in Punjab are deliberately visual and public, embedding Haryana’s policies into Punjab’s political imagination.

BJP Moving Beyond ‘Congress Imports’

Internally, Saini’s prominence also signals a shift. Over the past few years, the BJP’s Punjab unit has been dominated by leaders who migrated from the Congress or allied formations — such as Capt Amarinder Singh and Sunil Kumar Jakhar. While they brought experience, they also fuelled perceptions of ideological dilution.

Saini, by contrast, represents a home-grown BJP leadership model — without legacy baggage or factional histories in Punjab. His emergence allows the party to project an organic leadership narrative rather than reliance on political imports.

Few expect the BJP to dominate Punjab in 2027. Organisational limitations in rural Malwa remain, and Sikh political scepticism persists. Yet elections are also about reshaping equations. If the BJP can consolidate OBC support, retain urban Hindu bases, and reduce resistance in parts of Doaba and border belts, it could emerge as a consequential third force. Even modest gains could disrupt traditional vote banks and alter coalition arithmetic.

Punjab has rarely rewarded shortcuts. The BJP appears to be responding with a strategy of patience — where cultural familiarity precedes ambition and governance optics precede rhetoric. In that architecture, Saini has emerged as the party’s most visible and carefully positioned instrument.

The writer is Chief Reporter, The Pioneer, Chandigarh; views are personal