Congress-led UDF gains in Keralam ahead of 2026 polls: Survey

Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appears poised to make significant gains in Kerala, according to a pre-poll survey released ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, with growing signs of anti-incumbency against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The survey, conducted by Poll Mantra with a sample size of 26,000 respondents, shows the UDF leading with a 38.2 per cent vote share. The LDF trails at 33.7 per cent, while the BJP-led NDA stands at 20.4 per cent. Around 8 per cent of voters remain undecided, a segment that could play a decisive role in the final outcome.

Within the UDF, VD Satheesan emerges as the most preferred chief ministerial face with 29.5 per cent support. He is followed closely by AICC General Secretary KC Venugopal at 28.2 per cent and Lok Sabha MP Shashi Tharoor at 23.4 per cent.

In the LDF camp, incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan leads internal preference with 38.2 per cent support, though facing a strong challenge from former health minister KK Shailaja, who secured 32.5 per cent.

Among political influencers surveyed at both state and national levels, Venugopal leads with 46.8 per cent backing as the most likely chief ministerial face, ahead of Vijayan, who garnered 27.9 per cent support.

The survey highlights Venugopal’s cross-demographic appeal. He leads among Christian voters with 33.2 per cent support and among Muslim voters with 29.5 per cent. Among younger voters aged 18-35, he tops preferences with 33.9 per cent, indicating growing traction among first-time voters.

On national leadership influence, Rahul Gandhi is seen as the most influential among Kerala voters, with 44.2 per cent support. He is followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 19.5 per cent and Vijayan at 16.8 per cent. Venugopal is cited by 12.4 per cent of respondents as a key national influencer.

The ruling LDF Government faces a challenging public assessment. About 31 per cent of respondents rated its performance as “very poor,” while 20.9 per cent termed it “poor.” Only 23.8 per cent rated governance as “excellent,” and 10.7 per cent as “good,” reflecting a notable dip in satisfaction.

On the development trust index, the Congress-led UDF leads with 38.9 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in its ability to deliver development. This compares to 27.8 per cent for the CPM-led LDF and 23.1 per cent for the BJP-led NDA.

Within the LDF, Vijayan continues to dominate as the preferred chief ministerial face among alliance supporters, though Shailaja shows strong traction among women voters and key communities.

In the NDA camp, former Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the chief ministerial post with 52.1 per cent support, far ahead of State BJP President K Surendran, who secured 22.4 per cent.

The survey also assessed political preferences in other States. In Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 61.5 per cent support among influencers. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee remains the overwhelming favourite at 58.6 per cent, while in Tamil Nadu, MK Stalin leads with 62.4 per cent.

The survey was conducted across Kerala with detailed demographic segmentation by gender, age group, and caste/community, offering a comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of a high-stakes electoral contest.