Can Carney’s visit melt the ice?

India and Canada have been two nations that have enjoyed cordial relations for long though that spell was abruptly broken in 2023 when Canada accused Indian agents of killing  Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist and a Canadian citizen; allegations which India vehemently denied. That was the time Justin Troudeau was the prime minister but after the elections when Mark Carney took over Canada has constantly tried to improve ties with India and leave the incident behind. Before the Mark Carney’s visit it even declared that India no longer posed a threat to Canadian security. In this context Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to India is more than just a routine state visit. It is a carefully crafted diplomatic move to mend fence with India. Canada as the rest of the world is coming to terms with the Trump’s rather erratic moves which have led Canada to seek partnerships outside of US ambit for which India is an ideal candidate.  For nearly two years, ties between Ottawa and New Delhi deteriorated following former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s assertion of pointers to Indian agents involved in Nijjar’s killing in Canada in 2023.

This led to diplomatic expulsions, suspended trade talks and political disengagement. Carney’s mission is therefore to put back the ties on track while improving trade relations to cement the relations and also hedge against the US tariffs.  The agenda signals pragmatism: discussions on a strategic partnership, revival of trade negotiations, cooperation in energy, critical minerals, innovation and strengthening people-to-people ties. It is diplomacy and economic realism rolled into one. Under Carney, Ottawa has sharpened its Indo-Pacific focus, in line with Canada’s 2022 strategy to diversify trade and security partnerships beyond its overwhelming dependence on the United States.  India’s vast and fast-growing market has acquired renewed importance for Canada’s petroleum, liquefied natural gas and technology sectors. For India, Canada is a potential long-term partner in energy security and a reliable source of critical minerals essential for the green transition. For over 15 years, India and Canada have intermittently negotiated a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with little to show. Talks were effectively frozen after the 2023 diplomatic rupture. But the geopolitics has changed in past two years. India has recently advanced trade frameworks with the UK, the European Union and the United States. Canada, notably, remains the only G7 country without a preferential trade agreement with India. Canadian Prime Minister has deliberately avoided the issues concerning Sikh community in Canada. Even a visit to Punjab is not in his itinerary. The omission underscores the visit’s economic focus and an attempt to avoid domestic political optics overshadowing strategic goals. Given Canada’s large Sikh diaspora, this balancing act is delicate. Carney must reassure his domestic constituency that, even as he rebuilds trust with India, he will not compromise their concerns to placate New Delhi.