BJP ride vote swing to big wins in West Bengal, Assam

The BJP's stupendous victory in the West Bengal and Assam Assembly polls was chiefly due to a big vote share shift of eight per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively, thereby ensuring that the saffron party will form the Governments on its own in the eastern States as it has an absolute majority. While West Bengal, for the first time, will have a BJP Government, the quantum jump in vote share in Assam has resulted in the party not needing allies to come to power.

For the first time since 1972, West Bengal is set to be governed by a party that is also in power at the Centre, a shift with far-reaching administrative and political implications. Coming to specifics, the vote share data highlighted the depth of the shift in Bengal. The BJP's share rose to 45.85 per cent, up from 38 per cent in 2021, while the TMC's dipped to nearly 40.94 per cent from 48 per cent. Translated into seat terms, the reversal was stark. The TMC's tally plummeted from 215 to around 80, even as the BJP surged from 77 to 207 seats, converting organisational expansion into a decisive and historic mandate. BJP received 29,218,815 votes, which translated into 207 seats, while TMC got 26,002,017 votes, which translated into 80 seats. Communist Party of India (Marxist) got 2,818,360 votes, which managed to win only one seat, while the Congress won two seats, which got 1,884,900 votes.

Initial interpretation of the poll data also suggested that the BJP swept seats where the voter turnout was over 85 per cent, and the two parties fared more or less evenly in seats where 95 per cent or more of the people participated in the polls this year. The saffron camp amassed 45.84 per cent votes in its kitty, up 7.87 per cent compared with the 37.97 per cent votes it managed in 2021, the EC data said. The jump accounted for its tally of 207 seats in the state assembly, which was restricted to 77 seats in the previous elections.

In several seats, the BJP saw very large jumps in vote share — more than 20 percentage points in seats like Jangipur and Jadavpur. The TMC recorded some of its biggest drops of more than 30 percentage points in Rejinagar, Nowda, and Jangipur.

From the TMC viewpoint, the party's vote share shrank from 48.02 per cent in 2021 to 40.8 per cent, a slide of 7.22 per cent, which cost it a deathly blow of 135 seats, down to 80 seats compared to its previous tally of 215. Data available from the poll watchdog showed that the BJP won 172 seats in segments where the voter turnout was between 85 and 95 per cent. The TMC's gains in the same category stood at just 45 seats. In constituencies where more than 95 per cent of people voted, the TMC won 37 seats, while the BJP was victorious in 28. In the current edition of the two-phase polls, West Bengal recorded a record average voter turnout of 92.47 per cent, which the EC said was the highest ever since Independence. In Karandighi, the BJP humbled the TMC by a margin of nearly 20,000 votes in a race where the contesting CPI(M) candidate managed to draw nearly 40,000 votes, finishing third. In Kaliganj, where the TMC won by a margin of a little over 10,000 votes, the candidate of the struggling CPI(M) still managed to poll nearly 23,000 votes in her favour.

 As regards Assam, where the saffron party returned to power for the third consecutive term, a 4.6 percentage point shift in its favour helped it bag 22 more constituencies this time compared to 2021 and win 82 seats. According to information shared by the Election Commission, the ruling BJP received 37.81 per cent of the total votes polled in 2026, translating into 82 wins. Its vote share was 33.21 per cent in 2021, when it had won 60 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, saw a marginal 0.17 percentage point increase in its vote share even as its seats fell by 10 from the last Assembly polls to settle at 19 this time. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bagged 102 seats, its highest ever, way ahead of the halfway mark of 64 in the 126-member Assam Assembly.

For the Opposition Congress, its vote share increased to 29.84 per cent this year from 29.67 per cent five years ago, but its number of MLAs went down to 19 from 29 in the outgoing Assembly. For the BJP's ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the vote share decreased to 6.47 per cent from 7.91 per cent in 2021, but it bettered its tally of MLAs by one to have 10 MLAs this time.

The Bodoland People's Front (BPF), another ally of the ruling NDA, got 3.73 per cent of the total votes polled on its way to winning 10 seats. It had won four seats in 2021, but the EC had not shown its vote share separately in 2021. In the Opposition camp, the AIUDF saw its vote share erode to 5.46 per cent as it won only two seats. In 2021, it had 16 MLAs and 9.29 per cent vote share.

Of the total people who voted this time, 1.23 per cent chose the None of the Above (NOTA) option this time, a slender rise from the 1.14 per cent voters who chose it five years ago, the EC data showed. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha did not win any seat but managed to corner 1.16 per cent vote share this time, signalling an expansion of the party to the Northeast. The EC said that in the 'others' category, comprising all other contesting parties and candidates, the vote share stood at 10.17 per cent. It was 13.7 per cent in 2021.

In the 126-member Assam Assembly, the ruling BJP won 82 seats, and its allies BPF and AGP pocketed 10 seats each in the results declared on Monday. The Congress and the Raijor Dal, who were part of a six-party Opposition alliance, won 19 and two seats respectively. AIUDF and Trinamool Congress fought separately as single entities and will have two and one MLA, respectively, in the new Assembly. Raijor Dal contested in 13 seats, Assam Jatiya Parishad in 10, CPI(M) in three, and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference in two. There were 258 Independent candidates in the polls.