Below-normal monsoon for India in 2026: Skymet

Even as many parts of India are enjoying pleasant weather due to the rains, the forecast for the next few months is not encouraging. Skymet, a private weather forecast agency, has predicted a below-normal monsoon in view of El Niño emerging later this year.

This probable scenario is negative for groundwater and reservoirs’ recharge and the power situation. Moreover, the forecast comes amid the ongoing geopolitical chaos, rising crude prices and inflation. It means India will have to shore up its food stocks as agriculture is based on rain-fed water.

Skymet, which has come out with its prediction of the South-West Monsoon at least 10 days ahead of the India Meteorological Department, expects the monsoon to be 94 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the 4-month-long period from June to September. The spread is below normal, being 90-95 per cent of LPA. In its earlier forecast in Jan 2026, Skymet assessed the Monsoon 2026 to be subpart and now retains the same.

In terms of Geographical prospects, Skymet expects the core monsoon rain-fed zone of the central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall.

Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during August-September. The eastern and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific Ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular”.

Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole has the capacity to drive Monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño. IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will contribute to a decent start to the monsoon. However, the chances of Monsoon getting impaired during the second half of the season cannot be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased.

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follow

• June — 101% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3mm)
• 70% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 20% chance of below normal
• July — 95% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5mm)
• 40% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 40% chance of below normal
• August — 92% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9mm)
• 20% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 60% chance of below normal
• September — 89% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9mm)
• 20% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 70% chance of below normal