Afghan-Pakistan rift turns deadly
It is understated yet deadly and could have far-reaching implications for the South Asian region. The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is escalating and, with world attention focused on West Asia, it is playing out loudly but no one seems to care. What is more disturbing is the fact that its human cost is rising with every assault, and soon it could be a major flashpoint that would be hard to contain. The reported Pakistani air strike on a Kabul hospital, which the Afghan Taliban claims killed nearly 400 people and injured 250, is not a border skirmish; it is a full-blown conflict. Though Islamabad insists it targeted militant infrastructure, not civilians, it was a massacre nonetheless. Ironically, Pakistan is getting a taste of its own medicine. For years, Pakistan nurtured, trained and used Taliban militants, who are now turning against it. Pakistan wanted a friendly regime in Kabul which would not only make its eastern border secure but also stand alongside it, in providing manpower when needed against India. However, Pakistan’s calculus failed when the Taliban returned to power in 2021. The Taliban, now in power and running Afghanistan, is no longer the insurgent force it once was. In five years of its tenure, Afghanistan has wilfully demonstrated autonomy and refused to take diktats from Pakistan’s generals.
At the heart of the breakdown is the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing a safe haven to TTP fighters, who have intensified attacks within Pakistani territory. Kabul denies these allegations, countering with claims that anti-Taliban groups find refuge in Pakistan. This blame game has steadily escalated into military confrontation. The latest strikes fit into this paradigm. Border skirmishes, air raids and retaliatory attacks have become rather routine. Moreover, diplomatic interventions by regional players have failed to produce lasting stability. What we are witnessing is not an isolated crisis but the steady normalisation of conflict between two deeply intertwined states.
There is an acute asymmetry in military capabilities. Pakistan, with its advanced air power and large standing army, holds sway over the Taliban’s limited conventional capabilities. Yet, its military might does not guarantee decisive victory. If Pakistan has the machinery, the Taliban have the will and mettle to fight, especially in rugged border regions where insurgency tactics thrive. What is worrisome is the fact that, at the moment, West Asia is unstable and in a state of flux. The chances of this war getting mixed up with West Asia are high, as eventually China,Russia and the US would get involved and contest any attempt by the rivals to dominate these strategically important countries. This creates a conducive environment for escalation, reducing the likelihood of timely international mediation. As the two nations slog, power has altered priorities and ideology has collided with sovereignty. The path forward demands restraint and the need for dialogue that can eventually stop this conflict. Ironically, neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan can afford to go to full-fledged war, and if they do, it would be catastrophic for their people and the region at large.
