The assassination of Maulvi Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani, a key leader in the Haqqani network, has sent shockwaves across Afghanistan and the region

The assassination of Maulvi Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani, the Taliban’s Minister for Refugees and a senior figure in the Haqqani network, has exposed significant fractures within the Taliban leadership and deepened the complexities of regional geopolitics. Claimed by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), the attack not only highlights the Taliban’s internal divisions but also reshapes the broader strategic landscape, especially for India.

On December 11, 2024, Khalil Haqqani was killed in a high-profile suicide bombing in Kabul. This incident underscored the Taliban’s failure to ensure internal security and revealed growing tensions between its Kandahar faction, led by Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, and the Haqqani network, headed by Sirajuddin Haqqani. These tensions have been fueled by the Haqqanis’ perception of neglect or even sabotage by the Kandahar faction. In response to this crisis, Sirajuddin Haqqani convened an emergency meeting in Gardez with key network leaders to address security breaches and the escalating threat posed by ISKP. This development points to potential fragmentation within the Taliban, which carries significant implications for regional stability and India’s security.

A fragmented Taliban could destabilize Afghanistan, creating fertile ground for extremist groups like ISKP. This faction’s hostility toward both the Taliban and regional actors, including India, raises the specter of increased attacks targeting Indian interests. The resultant instability might also spill over into Pakistan, indirectly affecting India’s border security, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.

Another concern lies in the potential strengthening of the Pakistan-Taliban nexus. Pakistan’s historical ties to the Haqqani network could enable it to leverage this faction against Indian activities in Afghanistan, including infrastructure and development projects. Such a scenario could escalate cross-border terrorism, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, and erode India’s strategic influence in Afghanistan. Indian investments in key infrastructure projects like the Zaranj-Delaram Highway and the Chabahar Port route may face heightened risks amidst this instability.

India also faces an increased terror threat as ISKP may collaborate with groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which are active in Pakistan. Such alliances could intensify attacks on Indian targets, while prolonged conflict in Afghanistan might radicalize vulnerable populations across the region, including within India.

Regionally, these developments complicate India’s diplomatic landscape. Iran, for instance, might shift its focus to countering Afghan instability, potentially undermining its collaboration with India on projects like Chabahar Port. Similarly, a stronger Pakistan-Haqqani alliance could align with China’s ambitions under the Belt and Road Initiative, further sidelining India in the region.

Globally, Pakistan’s backing of the Haqqani network provides it with a lever to influence Afghan politics but risks alienating the Kandahar faction and exacerbating internal Taliban conflicts. ISKP’s growing power, meanwhile, poses a direct challenge to South Asian security, threatening to destabilize the region and affect India’s geopolitical interests. For India, the assassination of Khalil Haqqani signifies a critical moment to recalibrate its approach.

India must bolster its intelligence capabilities and border security, particularly in sensitive areas like Jammu and Kashmir. Strengthening partnerships with Iran, Central Asia, and Russia could counterbalance Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. Coordinating with international allies to combat ISKP and other extremist groups will also be vital. Furthermore, India must protect its investments in Afghanistan through global partnerships and maintain diplomatic efforts via multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the United Nations.

The killing of Khalil Haqqani has revealed the fragile balance within the Taliban and underscored the potential for regional destabilization. For India, this evolving scenario demands vigilance, proactive diplomacy, and strengthened security measures to safeguard its interests amid shifting geopolitical realities.

 For India, the implications are profound, ranging from the potential rise of terrorism to a weakening of its strategic foothold in Afghanistan.

The escalating instability could embolden extremist groups like ISKP, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammed, increasing the risk of attacks targeting India. To address these challenges, India must adopt a multi-pronged strategy.

Enhancing intelligence capabilities, securing its borders, and deepening ties with Iran, Central Asia, and Russia are crucial steps. Engaging multilateral platforms to combat the ISKP threat and protect investments is equally vital. The situation demands vigilance and proactive measures to safeguard India’s interests in an increasingly volatile region, ensuring its strategic and security objectives remain intact amidst shifting dynamics.

(The writer is an eminent expert on counter terrorism in West Asia; views are personal)