The final doors are being knocked, ads are blaring and candidates are making a last pitch to voters. Even with the high-energy final push, the races for control of Congress are at a stalemate, essentially a toss-up for the House and fight to the finish for the Senate.
The outcome of Tuesday’s election will shape the country’s future, determining whether the new White House has allies or sceptics on Capitol Hill — or faces a divided Congress like this past session, which has been among the most tumultuous and unproductive in modern times.
As voters assess their presidential options between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, they also are sizing up who will represent them in Congress.
“This is why I’m an independent,” said voter Gary Motta of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, who isn’t happy with either choice for president, as he showed up at an early Sunday morning event for Republican Kevin Coughlin, who is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. The struggle for control of Congress has gone on for months. Candidates have tussled over the big issues — the economy, the border, reproductive health care and the future of democracy — but also over Congress itself, which had a chaotic session as the GOP-led House ousted its speaker and barely fended off government shutdowns. This is the first presidential election since the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and many Republican lawmakers who voted against certifying Democrat Joe Biden’s White House win over Trump are up for reelection.
Republican candidates, many backed by the former president, are finding themselves having to answer for him on several fronts. Among them is the decision by the Supreme Court, with three justices who were nominated by Trump, that ended the right to abortion access
Democrats face tough questions over the Biden-Harris record on the US-Mexico border and on inflation during their time at the White House.
Most of the closely contested House campaigns are being waged beyond the presidential swing states, including in New York and California, where Republican Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted as speaker and then left Congress, had made inroads in his home state. Democrats under New York’s Hakeem Jeffries, the party’s House leader, are now trying to win them back.
Starting Saturday, California Rep. Pete Aguilar, the Democratic caucus chairman, is making a nine-stop swing through the Golden State to win back seats.
“There’s a lot of energy out there,” said Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in an interview from Omaha, Nebraska, a surprising battleground, after a swing through New York. “We’re just working hard to get out the vote.”
She said there are “tons of volunteers on the ground, lots of energy, people very, very focused. They understand there’s a lot at stake.”
With the ever-escalating world of campaign fundraising, this election year stands apart: A whopping USD 2.5 billion is being spent to win the Senate and almost USD 1 billion on the House.
The Senate is the Republicans’ to lose, a coda to the long stewardship of their party leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. He recruited wealthy Republican candidates, many backed by Trump, to face off against a half-dozen incumbent Democrats facing tough reelections.
In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in one of the most competitive races in the country that could flip control to Republicans. But a half-dozen more Senate races including in the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, are as tight as the presidential race in those states.
But late-breaking shifts are injecting new uncertainty in other Senate races, putting Sen. Ted Cruz on defense in Republican-heavy Texas where Democratic Rep. Colin Allred has seen a surge of energy, including from Harris’ star-studded rally in Houston with hometown hero Beyoncé. Nebraska independent Dan Osborne has caught Republicans off guard in Nebraska as he tries to unseat GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.
Other Republican Senate candidates have stumbled.
In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno, who is facing Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, made comments critical of suburban women making abortion access a priority issue. Republican Tim Sheehy made derogatory remarks about Native Americans, a key voting bloc in his race against Tester in Montana.
As Republicans have outsourced their get-out-the-vote efforts to new groups, including Elon Musk’s America PAC, the campaign committees have had to stand up their own to ensure that people vote.
Davide Cuigini, part of the Young Republicans working to turn out the vote for Moreno last weekend in Ohio, said, “Republicans are finally early voting, so that’s gong to make a difference.”
Yet the energy on the Democratic side grew quickly once Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket over the summer..
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland, who could make history alongside Delaware’s Lisa Blunt Rochester as Black women in the Senate, hosted former President Barack Obama last week. Alsobrooks is running against Larry Hogan, a popular former governor.
In the House, Democrats have seen several races shift their way, according to nonpartisan analysts. But others, in Alaska and an open seat in Michigan, tilt toward Republicans. Two of the House’s longest serving lawmakers are in the fights of their political lives in Ohio and California.
Still, a internal DCCC memo showed 21 of 25 contested seats still close, one week from the election.
There are also unusual battlegrounds, including what Nebraskans call the “blue dot” around Omaha, where Republican Rep. Don Bacon faces a challenge from Democrat Tony Vargas.
The outcome of the races will be a test of House leadership under Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. He said at a recent stop near Akron, Ohio, that with the GOP’s “winsome warriors” as candidates, he knows they will win.
Jeffries, in line to become House speaker if Democrats take control, said he has decided to “ remain calm, “ even if the possibility of unexpected events keeps him up at night.
If the two chambers do in fact flip party control, as is possible, it would be rare.
Records show that if Democrats take the House and Republicans take the Senate, it would be the first time that the chambers of Congress have both flipped to opposing political parties.
“This election is a very big deal,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, campaigning for a fellow Democrat in one of his state’s House races.
