Witnessing a see-saw political showdown between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on most of the seats, Punjab's electorate once again demonstrated its independent streak. The Congress emerged as the top performer securing seven seats in the multi-cornered contest, while the ruling AAP, despite its overwhelming majority win in the state two years ago, managed to clinch only three seats. Four of AAP’s five incumbent Cabinet Ministers were rejected by the voters, signaling a significant shift in public sentiment.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), contesting without an alliance for the first time since 1996, failed to win any seats. However, it did manage to increase its vote share — from 6.60 percent in 2022 state assembly polls to 18.20 percent in 2024 Lok Sabha polls — surpassing its former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which was relegated to the fringes with just one seat and a diminishing vote share of 13.55 percent — party’s lowest in the recallable past.

The most striking aspect of Punjab’s election results is the stunning victories of two pro-Khalistan candidates. Amritpal Singh, a self-styled Sikh preacher currently imprisoned under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) in Assam’s Dibrugarh jail, triumphed from the panthic seat of Khadoor Sahib; while Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, won in Faridkot — indicating at what is described as revival of panthic agenda in Punjab political landscape.

Their victories highlight a deep-seated frustration with successive Central and State Governments’ inability to tackle key issues vital to Punjab. Be it rampant drug crisis or unresolved sacrilege cases to contentious riparian rights and unresolved grievances from the turbulent militancy era, the people of Punjab have grown weary of empty promises. The decisive shift in the electorate reflected a demand for meaningful action and lasting solutions to their enduring problems.

Joining the winners’ circle alongside Amritpal and Khalsa are former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi from Jalandhar, Punjab Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring from Ludhiana, former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa from Gurdaspur, Cabinet Minister Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer from Sangrur, former two-time MP Sher Singh Ghubaya from Ferozepur, and AAP’s chief spokesperson Malvinder Singh Kang from Anadpur Sahib.

Among the notable outcomes, SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal’s wife, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, successfully defended her stronghold in Bathinda for the fourth consecutive term. In contrast, former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh’s wife, Preneet Kaur, was decisively defeated in Patiala by cardiologist-turned-social worker Dr Dharamvira Gandhi, finishing in a distant third place. Meanwhile, Congress incumbents Gurjeet Singh Aujla from Amritsar and Dr Amar Singh from Fatehgarh Sahib secured comfortable victories.

Voters ousted sitting MPs Sushil Kumar Rinku from Jalandhar and Ravneet Singh Bittu from Ludhiana, seemingly as a rebuke for their defection to the BJP. Additionally, Simranjeet Singh Mann, the SAD (Amritsar) president who surprised many with his by-election win in Sangrur in 2022, also faced defeat.

The Akalis and the BJP suffered electoral setbacks due to their alliance dissolution during the 2020 farmers' movement — a historic departure after nearly three decades of collaboration.

Interestingly, candidates across parties are holding off on celebrations until June 8, mindful of the anniversary of Operation Bluestar, which began on June 2.

CONGRESS SAILING THROUGH HURDLES

Facing large-scale defections, corruption allegations against its leaders, and virtually being devoid of its top leadership, the Congress succeeded in emerging as a formidable force by maintaining its seat share, besides improving its vote share from 22.98 percent in 2022 state assembly polls to 26.37 percent in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The grand old party, with the help of a Rahul Gandhi-led national-level campaign against the BJP, managed to improve upon disappointing performance in the assembly elections two years back, where the party secured only 18 out of 117 seats, prompting it to contest independently rather than aligning with the AAP.

Congress faced a critical juncture in Punjab, with prominent figures such as Capt Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar, Preneet Kaur, Ravneet Bittu, Manpreet Badal, no longer with the party. Navjot Sidhu also stayed away. The party went to polls under the leadership of Warring, with the high command showing significant trust in his leadership so far.

the factors that contributed to the Congress’ impressive showing in the Lok Sabha polls is its strong move to field the prominent leaders including state party chief Warring, former Chief Minister Channi, former deputy chief minister Randhawa—a move that indicated the party’s seriousness while spearheading energetic campaigns, rallying supporters behind them.

Overcoming factionalism and internal discord, the party demonstrated remarkable unity to present a cohesive front unlike the assembly polls, when Navjot Singh Sidhu opened a front against his own party’s government. Despite facing corruption charges from the AAP Government, the party showcased unprecedented solidarity, driven by a shared commitment to a larger cause.

Significantly, public disillusionment with the AAP administration contributed to the Congress’ success, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Mann Government's performance and reverting to the grand old party.

The Congress also garnered substantial support from farmers, backing ongoing protests and promising debt waivers if returned to power. Notably, the endorsement of late singer Sidhu Moosewala’s father, Balkar Singh, resonated with youth voters in some Malwa constituencies.

Furthermore, the Congress strategically addressed local concerns through a comprehensive vision document, effectively connecting with the voters on specific issues. By tailoring their approach to local dynamics, the party demonstrated responsiveness to electorate needs, solidifying its position in Punjab's political landscape.

MANDATE AGAINST TWO-YEAR-OLD AAP GOVT

AAP failed to sustain the momentum it gained in the 2022 state assembly elections, where it had secured a resounding victory, winning 92 out of the 117 seats with a 42.01 percent vote share under the banner of "badlav" (change). In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AAP's performance witnessed a significant decline, managing to win only three seats and experiencing a 16 percent drop in its vote share — from 42.01 percent in 2022 to 26.31 percent in 2024.

This electoral outcome can be interpreted as a mandate against the State Government's performance over the past two years, delivering a blow to Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann's leadership and the party's image. It is noteworthy that in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AAP had secured a modest 7.38 percent vote share, winning a single seat in Sangrur.

During Mann's two and a half years in office, his government's performance was under intense scrutiny. AAP highlighted its achievements, such as providing free electricity to residents, creating government jobs, improving healthcare through mohalla clinics (neighborhood clinics), and cracking down on corruption, aiming to achieve the target of 13-0 (winning all 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab).

However, the opposition parties continuously targeted the AAP government on issues of law and order and alleged political vendetta, portraying Mann as a puppet of the party's central leadership in Delhi. They also highlighted the government's failure to fulfill significant promises, such as providing a monthly allowance of Rs 1,000 to women above 18 years of age.

It also brought to light AAP's leadership challenges in Punjab. The party's decision to import leaders from the Congress party to contest in constituencies like Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, and Fatehgarh Sahib indicated a shortage of strong candidates within the party ranks. Additionally, the decision to field sitting ministers in five constituencies, along with incumbent legislators, underscored the party's leadership crisis.

The people of Punjab rejected four of AAP's Cabinet Ministers in these elections, with Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer being the only one to retain the party's stronghold in Sangrur — the Chief Minister's home segment, marking the third consecutive victory for AAP in this constituency. Former Congress MLA Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal won the Hoshiarpur seat for AAP, while first-timer Malwinder Singh Kang wrested the Anandpur Sahib seat from the Congress party. Among the remaining candidates, six AAP candidates finished as runners-up, while three ended up in third place.

SAD PUSHED TO THE MARGIN

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), Punjab's sole regional party, faced significant challenges in the recent election, contesting independently for the first time since the passing of former Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal. Under the leadership of Sukhbir Badal, the party made concerted efforts to reunite its veteran members in an attempt to revitalize the organization. However, these efforts were met with limited success, particularly due to disagreements over ticket allocation, which led to the discontentment of the influential Dhindsa family.

In a final push, Sukhbir Badal and his team focused on a panthic agenda, revisiting issues such as Operation Bluestar and the anti-Sikh riots to appeal to Sikh voters. Sukhbir even undertook a state-wide "Punjab Bachao Yatra" to reinvigorate the party cadre ahead of the polls. Despite these efforts, the party encountered fierce competition in all constituencies and struggled to strengthen its presence in key seats, including Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib, Ludhiana, Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur, Patiala, and Khadoor Sahib.

SAD witnessed a substantial decline in its vote share, which fell from 27.76 percent in the 2019 election to 18.38 percent in the 2022 state polls, and further decreased to 13.42 percent in the 2024 election. Consequently, the party's seat tally has been reduced to just one, down from the two seats it secured in 2019 when it was in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This significant setback highlights the need for the party to reevaluate its strategies and address internal challenges to regain its footing in Punjab's political landscape.

BJP FAILED TO WIN A SEAT, IMPROVES VOTE SHARE

Until 2019, the BJP, in alliance with the SAD, contested only three seats in Punjab — Amritsar, Gurdaspur, and Hoshiarpur. But this time, the BJP fielded candidates in all 13 constituencies, breaking a 58-year-old tradition, in an apparent move to expand its footprint in the state. Despite the ambitious push, the BJP faced setbacks. It failed to retain the two seats it had won in 2019 — Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur. The silver lining, however, was an improved vote share.

BJP pinned its hopes on the Ram Temple issue and the 'Modi factor' to sway urban voters. Party strategists believed that this would resonate, especially among Punjab's approximately 38 percent Hindu population. However, their calculations fell short, particularly in rural areas dominated by agriculturists.

The BJP leadership also highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts for the Sikh community. Initiatives such as opening the Kartarpur Corridor, removing Sikhs from the blacklist, and promoting Sikh heritage were emphasized. Celebrating 'Veer Bal Diwas' to honor Guru Gobind Singh Ji's sons further underscored their commitment.

Top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, national president JP Nadda, and Union Ministers Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh, addressed rallies relentlessly. However, their efforts didn't translate into electoral gains.

The saffron brigade grappled with challenges. Lingering resentment from the farmers’ movement posed a significant obstacle, especially in rural areas. Despite having a robust organization, the BJP lacked substantial presence in most constituencies. Importing leaders from other parties for nearly 10 seats turned the BJP into a 'Congress-yukt' (Congress-influenced) entity.

In all, the 2024 Punjab elections tested the BJP's mettle, revealing both its determination to expand and the hurdles it faced. While victory eluded them in some seats, the party's increased vote share indicated that it remains a force to reckon with in Punjab's political landscape, especially with an eye on 2027 state assembly polls.

REVIVAL OF PANTHIC AGENDA

The 2019 election results marked a significant resurgence of the panthic agenda in Punjab. Two candidates emerged as powerful contenders, outperforming established parties. Notably, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) Amritsar-Mann, a pro-Khalistan outfit which contested all 13 seats, also secured substantial votes across the board. Mann, the party's president and Sangrur MP, garnered an impressive 1,87,246 votes.

Simultaneously, independent candidates like Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, known for their radical stances, tapped into public discontent. Their unexpected victories hint at deeper undercurrents — perhaps “larger designs” — that propelled them into the electoral spotlight.

This surge reflected widespread frustration with the failure of both Central and the State Governments to address critical issues central to Punjab.

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And the winner is …

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PROMINENT LOSERS

Sitting MPs: Preneet Kaur (Patiala), Sushil Kumar Rinku, Ravneet Singh Bittu, Simranjeet Singh Mann

Cabinet Ministers: Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal, Laljit Singh Bhullar, Gurmeet Singh Khuddian, Dr Bablir Singh

Sitting MLAs: Ashok Prashar Pappi, Jagdeep Singh Kaka Brar, Sukhpal Singh Khaira, Amansher Singh Sherry Kalsi

Former MPs/MLAs or ex-Ministers: Anil Joshi, Virsa Singh Valtoha, Mohinder Singh Kaypee, Vijay Inder Singla, Prem Singh Chandumjra, Gurpreet Singh GP, Rana Gurmeet Singh Sodhi

Other Big Names: Taranjit Singh Sandhu, Anita Som Parkash, Hans Raj Hans, Karamjit Singh Anmol, Parampal Kaur Sidhu, Lakha Sidhana (SAD-Amritsar)