The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is back with vengeance, crushed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to retain power, with an outstanding strike rate of over 86 per cent with 133 seats in Maharashtra indicates a tactical shift in the backdrop of the stunning victory in Haryana as its lacklustre show in Lok Sabha elections in the two states. This is the best ever performance of the BJP in the state. With 26.57 percent vote share, the BJP got votes of 16, 642, 993 which is more than the vote’s shares of Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT).
The stunning victory for the Mahayuti in Maharashtra clearly suggests that the brand of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still the most powerful ammo that the BJP has in its armoury, which trounced the Opposition alliance that was clearly a frontrunner in the battle at the hustings in India’s wealthiest state just about five months back. The victory has again put a seal of approval on Home Minister Amit Shah’s tag as a “modern-day Chanakya and master strategist”.
The extent of BJP’s dominance in this election can be gauged by the fact that the saffron party’s projected score is more than double the tally of the opposition’s MVA, which includes the Congress, Shiv Sena(UBT) and NCP(SP).
But the million dollar question that arises in Maharashtra now is who will be the chief minister of the state. Will Eknath Shinde continue to be the CM or his deputy and BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, who played a pivotal role in ensuring the saffron party’s resounding win?
The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won the majority in 2019 assembly elections. The BJP won 105 seats, while the Shiv Sena (undivided) grabbed 56 seats. Overall, the two parties won 151 seats in 2019. The BJP had won 122 seats in 2014 assembly elections and 46 seats in 2009 and 54 in 2004. The BJP’s strike rate is way ahead of all the other five players in the fray, including two of its allies. While the Shiv Sena is ahead in 56 of the 81 seats it contested, the NCP is leading in 38 out of 59 seats.
There are other reasons which worked in favour of the BJP. It was also Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s “Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana” launched in June that turned the tide in favour of the three-party ruling dispensation. Under the scheme, women in the state got five instalments of Rs 1,500 each till the elections. The impact was visible during polls as women came out in large numbers to cast ballots in the state, apparently helping the Mahayuti to register a landslide.
The BJP also revisited its roots by working closely with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS has held over 60,000 small meetings in the state and mobilised the BJP voters to come out and vote. The RSS, through special 65 friendly organisations, launched a campaign called ‘Sajag Raho’ - be vigilant, be awake’, bolstering BJP’s push in the assembly polls. The RSS had not been as much on ground in Lok Sabha elections with the BJP reportedly deciding not to field Sangh-recommended candidates in some seats. Worse, BJP President JP Nadda sparked a row when he said, in an interview, that the BJP didn’t depend on the RSS.
Amid turmoil in Maharashtra, the decision to appoint rebel leader Eknath Shinde as the chief minister of the state also worked in favour of BJP. Rarely in India’s political history has a rebel leader become a chief minister of a state with the support of the Opposition members. The decision was perceived as a move to elevate the Shiv Sena leader as an alternative to Uddhav Thackeray. And as things stand on Saturday, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction of Mahayuti won 55 seats as opposed to Thackeray faction’s 21 seats.
The BJP effectively capitalised on the growing religious polarisation in Maharashtra. It focused on the so-called ‘vote jihad’, ‘Batenge to Katenge’ and ‘Ek Hain to Safe Hain’ rhetoric. This strategy resonated with a section of the electorate. BJP top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath, used slogans like “Ek hain toh safe hain” and “Batenge toh katenge” during the campaign in the recent election. Despite the controversy surrounding these slogans, the underlying message was a call for Hindu unity and OBC consolidation in favour of the ruling alliance. The BJP successfully painted the Opposition as appeasing Muslim vote banks.
The BJP surge came on the back of a strong showing in the Vidarbha region. The BJP contested the highest number of seats (47) in the region, which is home to a large chunk of both large- and small-scale farmers. Following the Lok Sabha rout, the BJP-led Mahayuti focused on its core OBC vote bank that was highly alienated during the general elections. The fall of Sharad Pawar led NCP is another reason to sweep the Maharashtra polls. Another big reason for this is farmers supporting the MY in a big way after BJP reached out to the cotton and soybean farmers with assurances on the MSP issue.
The BJP relentlessly campaigned against the MVA government and highlighted alleged corruption, mismanagement and internal strife. The party successfully reminded voters of the 25-month “misrule” of the MVA and pointed to incidents like the Palghar sadhu killings, the Antilia case and corruption allegations against NCP leader Anil Deshmukh. The BJP’s attacks on Uddhav Thackeray’s alleged departure from his father’s Hindutva legacy and his alliance with the Congress and the NCP further undermined the Opposition’s credibility.
Another reason is that the BJP tackled its internal rebellion issues head-on and prevented key figures such as Prakash Mehta and Gopal Shetty from contesting as independent candidates. The strategic withdrawal of rebel leaders helped avoid internal fractures and ensured the party’s full strength in the election. The BJP also managed dissent within its ranks by persuading potential troublemakers, who include Maratha leader Manoj Jarange-Patil, to step back from the electoral fray. It prevented a split in votes.
The Mahayuti’s victory in Maharashtra, coming close on the heels of the BJP’s win in the Haryana Assembly elections, has come as a morale-booster for the BJP’s rank and file which was dejected to an extent after it failed to secure an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha elections. For the BJP, retaining Maharashtra would cement its dominance ahead of another round of key elections in Delhi and Bihar next year.
