Researchers analysing weather data spanning over the past century in all the ten districts of the Kashmir Valley in the northwestern Himalayas, have flagged the region is experiencing increased temperatures, particularly in winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons. This warming trend is disrupting traditional weather patterns, thus the region’s ecosystem. Similarly, less precipitation is being reported during winter months while in contrast, spring and summer months are seeing increased rainfall.
“In Kashmir, accelerated glacier melting is a result of higher temperatures, which also impacts ecosystems and access to freshwater resources. Water scarcity, decreased agricultural water supply, and disruptions in the hydropower industry can all result from this.
“The risk of flooding and landslides might increase with higher precipitation and more severe rainstorm events. Flash floods and debris, caused by a combination of high rainfall and steep topography, can pose serious threats to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems,” said the study ‘Unveiling Precipitation and Temperature Patterns in Kashmir Valley, India’. The authors have called for understanding these climatic trends which are crucial for managing water resources and preparing for the impacts of climate change in the fragile Himalayan region to address the potential impacts on biodiversity, ecological services, and local livelihoods.
Published in Springer and ResearchGate, the research covered monthly, seasonal, and annual trends from 1901 to 2018 across the districts of Srinagar, Kulgam, Shupian, Ganderbal, Budgam, Bandipore, Anantnag, Pulwama, Baramulla, and Kupwara. As per the authors Sana Rafi and Raghupathi Balasani respectively from Delhi-based Jamia Millia Islamia and JNTU, Hyderabad, significant warming was noted in winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons, although Kupwara and a few other districts were some exceptions.
Annual precipitation is increasing significantly in all districts. February and March show rising trends in most areas, with significant increases observed in April through June. By July, all districts except Anantnag experienced significant increases in precipitation, said the study.
Monthly weather patterns are also changing. February, March, and April show significant increases in precipitation in various districts and in most months except for a few districts in certain months like August and December.
Temperature trends are also rising, with some variations between districts, the study said, noting that it can accelerate glacier melting, impacting water resources and ecosystems while increasing and changing precipitation patterns can lead to water scarcity, reduced agricultural water supply, and disruptions in hydropower.
“This study is therefore an attempt to detect trends and variability in precipitation and temperature for the period 1901-2018 in Kashmir Valley. For studies on climate change and the management of water resources, especially in the vulnerable Himalayan region, it is essential to comprehend these trends and variability,” said the authors.
