India sided with Russia in the Ukraine war despite the US pressure
The upcoming Vibrant Gujarat summit will see the highest delegation participation from Russia including from its far east. It was no surprise that the external affairs minister spent the last week of 2023 meeting senior leaders in Russia. In the two years since Russian troops stormed into Ukraine, laying claim over several parts, there has been a huge shift in geopolitics and the way India is viewed by Western powers. India was at the receiving end of severe criticism from the West and its close ally US, as it had expanded its energy purchase from Russia, which is facing sanctions. One of the first visits the external affairs minister took nearly two years back after the war broke in Ukraine, was to Washington. India patiently stood its ground on buying Russian oil and not openly condemning the war. It helped India maintain relatively stable oil prices at home when the West was going through oil-pumped inflation.
The astute diplomatic path paid off and, slowly the criticism evaporated, as the West saw merit in India buying oil from a pool different from theirs, thus cooling off prices for them. A clever phrase by PM Modi during the G20 summit declaration in 2022, that “It is not an era of war”, was widely accepted across the board.
The Indian Prime Minister meanwhile met US President Biden a couple of times on multilateral platforms and topped it up with a state visit to Washington in 2023. India knows that for it to succeed in a world of competitive economic interests and politics, the US is its best bet. India managed to sign several crucial long-range bilateral cooperation agreements with the US while expanding the relationship from a defence to a technology partnership. The regular conversations between top leaders of India and the US, and the frank explanations provided to the policymakers in the US ensured that the minor glitches, if any, were sorted. It is in this context that the Indo-Russian relationship has to be viewed, which is perhaps the most stable bilateral for almost four decades. During a joint press conference with FM Sergei Lavrov of Russia, External affairs minister S Jaishankar noted, “We appreciated the fact that our trade is at an all-time high. We crossed $50 billion turnover last year.
We expect to exceed that this year. And what is important is that this trade is more balanced. It is sustainable, and it provides for fair market access...We are today, in our trade, energy, fertilizers, and coking coal are very big components of that. We discussed mutual investments, and the need to progress on a bilateral investment treaty. We spoke about railways yesterday, about industrial zone infrastructure. We have agreed that the negotiations between India and the Eurasian Economic Union for a free trade agreement will be resumed in the second half of January this year. On energy, as I mentioned, we have today a very substantial relationship, both in terms of Indian investments in Russia and in oil and gas, which we are seeking to expand. As also in nuclear; yesterday we signed two important amendments, which will take the Kudankulam nuclear power project forward.
We also spoke about connectivity; connectivity from western India through the International North-South Transport Corridor. Also connectivity from eastern India, from Chennai to Vladivostok and the polar route.” The statement sets out a roadmap for the bilateral going in for the long term. In the recent past, Russia has moved closer to China and has been on opposite sides of India's US geo-political worldview. India-China bilateral relations are in a deep freeze post the military escalations by the latter. Going into 2024 with the US and India the two largest democracies facing elections, these long-standing bilateral relationships would be widely discussed during campaigns. The Russia visit was an exercise to reiterate the importance of long-term friendships.
(The writer is a policy analyst; views are personal)
