Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Nigeria highlights India’s bid to rejuvenate ties with the African nation and counter China’s growing influence through partnerships

A little over two months after China’s assiduous wooing of Nigeria, India sought to do the same during PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the African nation. The prime ministerial visit, coming after a gap of 17 years, should inject fresh momentum into bilateral ties. It should also, hopefully, help a bit in countering Beijing’s growing influence in Nigeria, a country with whom India has enjoyed close and robust ties for decades but now finds itself in competition with China.

While India and Nigeria have ‘a strategic partnership’, the African nation and China elevated their ties to ‘a comprehensive strategic partnership’ this year. The courting of Nigeria as well as dozens of other African countries was done bilaterally as well collectively at the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit in early September in Beijing. These summits have been held regularly since the first one in 2006, with one even being held virtually during the Covid-19 pandemic. India, however, has floundered in not being able to organise an African summit since the last one in 2015, ostensibly due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, but amounts to a lack of strategic foresight.

China is making deeper inroads into the African continent for both strategic as well as economic reasons. Strategically, it can project itself as a geopolitical force countering arch foe US. Moreover, strengthening its foothold in the world’s second most populous continent comes with the lucrative advantage of having access to the huge market as well as the rich mineral resources there. For many cash-strapped African nations, China has been a pivotal lender of loans for much-needed infrastructure construction, but it comes with the perils of running up huge debts.

Africa is a vital part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with 53 nations having signed onto the endeavour that India views with deep suspicion given Beijing’s hegemonic intentions. Under the BRI, China is assisting Nigeria in its connectivity efforts by building railway lines and a deep sea port in Lagos. 

China is also Nigeria’s biggest bilateral lender and the two sides decided to forge close economic ties when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu met in Beijing ahead of the FOCAC Summit. 

It’s in the backdrop of all this that PM Modi’s recent visit to Nigeria assumes even greater significance. While he made it clear that India gives “high priority” to its strategic partnership with Nigeria, the visit yielded only three pacts – on survey cooperation, cooperation in customs matters and culture exchange programmes.

India will have to do some real heavy lifting in the coming years if the 14 areas of bilateral cooperation identified in the joint statement are to come to fruition. Among these are the Bilateral Investment Treaty, the Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty and the Agreement on repurposed Line of Credits. India’s outreach to Nigeria at the highest level was required given that Africa’s most populous nation enjoys much heft in the region and beyond. It’s a founding member of the African Union (AU), which India helped bring into the G-20’s fold last year. Nigeria is now also a BRICS partner state. The country is also a member of OPEC, with President Tinubu also being the current chair of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). A fresh push to boost bilateral trade and investments by Indian companies in Nigeria is imperative.

There are already over 200 Indian companies in the manufacturing sector with investments worth $27 billion in Nigeria. While India remains among the top 5 trading partners of Nigeria, bilateral trade unfortunately decreased to $7.89 billion in 2023-24 from $14.95 billion in 2021-22.

This is attributed to a reduction in Indian oil imports from Nigeria as it chose to import oil from Russia, taking advantage of the cheaper rates being offered due to the conflict with Ukraine.

With the joint statement with Nigeria talking about India’s willingness to go in for long-term contracts for crude and LNG purchases, bilateral trade might pick up once again. Significantly, India has also evinced interest in investing in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. Terrorism and piracy also figured as areas of cooperation in the joint statement. Nigeria for many years has been battling the Islamic radical group Boko Haram, which has also been attacking oil and gas infrastructure in the country. India, interestingly, has offered technical know-how on security for pipelines in Nigeria.

Maritime domain cooperation is also of crucial importance to combat piracy. Nigeria abuts the Gulf of Guinea through which passes crucial sea lanes for transporting crude oil. India had deployed at least two warships, INS Sumedha in 2023 and INS Tarkash in 2022, in the piracy-prone Gulf of Guinea. With Chinese vessels on the prowl across the oceans, these deployments were not without strategic significance.

Overall, India needs to move and move fast, delivering on its promises made during PM Modi’s visit to Nigeria. It has no time to lose in majorly upscaling its traditional robust ties with African nations, especially with China increasingly grabbing strategic space in the continent.The writer is a senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs.

(The writer is a senior journalist who writes on strategic affairs; views are personal)