As Sri Lanka embarks on this new chapter, the implications for its ties with India and the broader geopolitical landscape remain critical
On Sunday, September 22, 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a prominent left-wing leader, won the presidential election in Sri Lanka, securing a victory that signals a significant departure from the country’s traditional political establishment and heralds a period of unprecedented transformation. The Election Commission of Sri Lanka officially declared Dissanayake the winner after conducting the nation’s first-ever second vote count, which included preference ballots.
"People are voting for change," said Dissanayake, the National People's Power alliance’s presidential candidate, who was led by the JVP. "Change" became one of the primary slogans for the 2024 presidential election. The election was remarkable in many ways—it was the first since the public uprising in July 2022, which forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office. The election was largely centered around economic issues. Interestingly, the Rajapaksa family, which had dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades, had no influence on the election. Among the 38 candidates, Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, was never considered a serious contender. The main contest was between opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, Dissanayake, and incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, who assumed office after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country in 2022.
Wickremesinghe campaigned on a platform of continuity, with his primary focus on stabilising the nation’s economy following its debt crisis and collapse in 2022. His administration claimed to have restored some financial stability by securing an IMF bailout package, ending fuel rationing, and addressing economic turmoil. However, poorer sections of the population, who were hardest hit by the economic collapse, saw little benefit from the stability he touted.
The core cause of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis was excessive borrowing for non-profitable ventures. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with the government’s insistence on depleting its limited foreign reserves to support the rupee, further crippled the economy. The severe shortage of essentials like fuel, food, cooking gas, and medicine led to mass public outrage. People stood in line for days to access basic necessities. As protests intensified, then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced out of power, with demonstrators taking over key government buildings, including the president's residence and office. Sri Lanka's deep political divisions continue to threaten the country's already fragile legislative framework, making effective governance increasingly difficult. These divisions risk perpetuating delays and inefficiency, potentially leading to a prolonged political deadlock that hinders the nation’s progress. Antonio Gramsci’s theory of passive revolution is relevant here, highlighting the danger of significant changes that merely reinforce the existing power structures. Likewise, Hannah Arendt’s observation that “The most radical revolutionary will become a conservative the day after the revolution” warns against decisions based purely on emotion rather than logic.
Sri Lanka and India have long been civilisational twins. India has historically maintained a deep interest in Sri Lanka’s political landscape. Today, the island nation is one of India’s most important regional allies, especially as some of its neighbors struggle with internal conflict or drift further from India's influence. Sri Lanka’s proximity to key Indian scientific and security installations, including nuclear reactors, space research centers, and naval bases in southern India, makes the island strategically vital. India's primary concern has been ensuring that no foreign power, particularly an adversarial one, gains undue influence in Sri Lanka. China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka is a major point of contention. Both India and China are vying for a foothold in the country due to its strategic location for trade and military purposes.
India has actively worked to strengthen its ties with Sri Lanka. This is evident in Colombo, where India’s Adani Group, with backing from US investments, is leading a multi-million-dollar expansion of the Colombo West International Terminal. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has handed control of Hambantota, a major shipping hub, to China on a 99-year lease due to financial losses.
In addition to its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, New Delhi is keen to maintain strong relations with Colombo to address the unresolved Tamil question in Sri Lanka.
In India’s Vision SAGAR and Neighbourhood First Policy, Sri Lanka occupies a special place. Both countries’ ministers can look forward to close collaboration to further develop and strengthen their bilateral relationship.
(The writer is an Associate Professor at the School of Liberal Arts – Bennett University, Greater Noida; views are personal)
