While the US-India relationship is poised to deepen in defence and trade, there will also be hurdles in some areas
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency brings a new chapter in US foreign policy that holds considerable implications for India. The outgoing Biden administration though not averse to India had reservations about the way domestic politics was shaping in India. But with Trump at the helm of affairs that reservation may quietly go and the Trump administration may go an extra mile to accommodate New Delhi. Trump’s victory could reshape strategic alliances, redefine trade relations and impact key regional dynamics that matter to New Delhi. The US-India defence relationship saw considerable progress during Trump’s previous tenure. He promoted India as a key strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance China’s rising influence, leading to initiatives such as increased military sales and the signing of defence agreements, including BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement). Trump’s victory may reinforce these policies, as he is likely to continue focusing on Indo-Pacific security. A renewed push for defence cooperation, joint military exercises, and arms deals could bolster India’s military capabilities in the region.
However, not all his policies may be to India’s liking. in his earlier tenure, Trump prioritised American industry, his trade policies often led to increased tariffs and renegotiations that impacted India. His “America First” approach pressured India into trade reforms to reduce the US trade deficit. This time, India might face similar pressures, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, but could also see openings to negotiate more favourable terms, especially if Trump seeks to reduce dependency on Chinese goods. There is potential for renewed trade deals, but both sides will likely need to balance protectionism with mutual growth. Trump’s previous immigration policies, which included tighter visa regulations, impacted the Indian IT workforce, particularly regarding H-1B visas. If his administration continues down this path, it could further restrict Indian tech talent. However, there may be room for negotiation to secure beneficial terms for skilled Indian workers, especially if Trump seeks closer ties with India on other fronts. Both Trump and India share a common concern over China’s assertive actions in Asia. Trump’s firm stance against China aligns with India’s interests, especially in light of the India-China border standoff. Trump’s support for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” and his scepticism towards Chinese trade practices resonate well with India’s own strategic goals. Under Trump, the US could be a more vocal supporter of India’s position on regional issues, potentially even playing a bigger role in multilateral forums like the QUAD. Trump’s stance on energy independence for the US could be beneficial for India’s energy security goals. Trump’s victory offers both opportunities and challenges for India. For India, the priority will likely be to build on common ground, particularly in areas where interests align, and work diplomatically to address any points of contention.
