The coup attempt, though now neutralised, gives an idea of what is going on in Russia

The attempted coup in Russia has sent shockwaves through the international community, raising concerns about stability in the region and fate of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The attempted overthrow of President Vladimir Putin's Government holds significant implications for the dynamics of the war and poses a profound threat to his grip on power. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the architect of the coup, was once close to Putin but has a longstanding disdain for the Defence Minister who, he thinks, has misled Putin and the nation on Ukraine. Wagner, the private army of Prigozhin, was about to invade Russia but its campaign has since ended. Prigozhin, a billionaire who runs a private army business, had been contemplating a mutiny for some time. Once a confidant of Putin, he marched with his mercenaries towards Moscow but a deal seems to have halted the campaign. However, there is currently no knowledge of Prigozhin’s whereabouts. It seems unlikely that he and Putin can co-exist for long, even if Prigozhin agrees to stay in Minsk. The Wagner chief has become a rival, and a possible post-Putin President. The attempt may be over for now, but Russia is entering another unpredictable phase. The coup attempt can be attributed to a deep-seated dissatisfaction among certain factions within Russia. Widespread corruption, economic stagnation and diminishing civil liberties have fuelled public anger, leading to increased opposition to Putin's regime.

The discontent within the Russian political elite has intensified as different factions vie for power and influence, seeking to capitalise on the perceived vulnerabilities of the incumbent government. The protracted conflict with Ukraine has strained Russia's resources, both financially and militarily, and further eroded public support for Putin's policies. The coup attempt adds a new layer of instability to an already volatile situation in the region. A successful coup, if and when it comes along, could prompt a change in Russia's priorities and foreign policy approach. New leadership might reassess the costs and benefits of the conflict, potentially seeking a diplomatic solution or reducing the intensity of Russia's involvement. This shift could provide an opportunity for de-escalation of the conflict. Prigozhin’s attempt also exposes deep divisions within the Russian political establishment. This internal fragmentation could hinder Russia's ability to pursue a unified approach to the Ukraine conflict, potentially weakening its overall position and diminishing its influence on the international stage. If left unaddressed, these factors could eventually undermine Putin's authority and lead to further challenges to his rule. To secure his position, Putin will likely resort to tightening control, suppressing dissent and potentially adopting more hardline measures. As the situation unfolds, it is crucial for the international community to closely monitor the developments and seek opportunities for dialogue and de-escalation.