Crude oil futures rise amid fears of disruptions
Crude oil prices rose more than 3 per cent to Rs 10,073 per barrel in futures trade on Friday, tracking sharp gains in global benchmarks amid concerns over supply disruptions triggered by the US-Iran war.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), crude oil for May delivery gained Rs 349, or 3.59 per cent, to Rs 10,073 per barrel in a business turnover of 9,898 lots.
Similarly, the July contract also advanced Rs 344, or 3.68 per cent, to Rs 9,694 per barrel in 9,315 lots.
Analysts said fears of tighter global supplies and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz supported crude oil prices. Global benchmarks also rallied sharply, with Brent oil for the July contract gaining $3.54, or 3.35 per cent, to $109.26 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June delivery rose nearly 4 per cent to $105 per barrel in New York.
“Crude oil prices gained steam on Friday, with Brent climbing to $108 per barrel and WTI trading near $105, headed for weekly gains of more than 6 per cent, fuelled by deepening concerns over supply disruptions linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict,” Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, said.
The Strait of Hormuz remained a key flashpoint, with limited tanker movement through the region amid vessel attacks, seizures and the ongoing US naval blockade around Iranian ports, which have reinforced fears that global energy supply disruptions could drag longer.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that oil markets could remain severely undersupplied through October, even if geopolitical tensions ease in the coming months, as falling inventories and disrupted crude flows have added to bullish sentiment.
Chainwala said the latest outlooks from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the IEA, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted growing uncertainty around the 2026 oil-market balance.
Meanwhile, OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand-growth forecast amid higher prices and geopolitical disruptions, while the IEA warned of structurally tight supply conditions and the EIA maintained that inventories could eventually rebuild once Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease.
Traders also assessed the outcome of talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which concluded on Friday without a breakthrough on Iran or energy security.
Although both sides characterised the discussions as constructive, analysts said, adding that the absence of a credible de-escalation framework kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated across crude oil markets.
According to analysts, crude oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions to shipping flows continue to threaten global energy chains.
