With Trump’s return, Southeast Asia finds itself bracing for another era of US ambiguity
With the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, Southeast Asia braces for another era of unpredictability in American foreign policy. Southeast Asian nations, while expressing formal congratulations following Trump’s victory, are now focusing on how his administration will impact their economies and strategic interests. As the region’s governments gear up for a distinctly different governance style than the one under President Joe Biden, the potential for dramatic shifts in trade relations, diplomatic ties and regional stability is palpable. The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—spanning from Indonesia to Myanmar—are acutely aware that Southeast Asia may not be at the top of the new administration’s priority list.
Trump is a known figure for his transactional and often unpredictable style of diplomacy. ASEAN countries, while understanding the volatility that a Trump administration can bring, remain cautiously optimistic that his return might lead to a return to serious trade talks. Many regional leaders believe that Trump’s preference for direct, bilateral negotiations could lead to more favourable deals for specific countries, particularly those that are not bound by multilateral negotiations, like those seen under Biden’s tenure. Yet, for many in Southeast Asia, the most pressing concern remains the US-China relationship. Since Trump’s first term, ASEAN nations have had to balance their relationships with both China and the US, seeking to maintain economic growth and regional security without angering either side. The dynamic has changed considerably in the post-pandemic era, as China and ASEAN emerged as each other’s largest trade partners. The direction of US-China relations will have profound consequences for Southeast Asia’s economic stability and security.
Under Trump, this relationship was tense, marked by the trade war and military posturing, and the nomination of hardline China critics, such as Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, signals that the US will continue to confront China head-on in ways that could disrupt regional dynamics. While many ASEAN leaders are concerned about the economic impact of a hard-line US-China policy, there is also hope that Trump’s presidency could bring much-needed attention back to Southeast Asia’s trade and strategic importance. This could be particularly appealing to resource-rich nations like Indonesia and the Philippines, which are in high demand for critical minerals used in electronics and green technologies. On the other hand, a significant worry for ASEAN countries is that they may become collateral damage in the US’s efforts to reduce its trade deficit.
Despite these uncertainties, ASEAN’s primary goal will remain stability and balance. ASEAN countries will push for steady relationships with both global powers, aiming to shield themselves from the worst effects of US-China tensions while seeking to expand their own economic and diplomatic space. To avoid being left behind, India is watching the space closely, as it is well aware that Trump will target Delhi soon.
Delhi is trying to rebuild bilateral relationships with several ASEAN groups of countries, even as it participates with full vigour on the multilateral platform. The chief guest for 2025 Republic Day would be the President of Indonesia, a key country in ASEAN. India’s exports to the US could be hit due to Trump’s overtures and it needs to find new markets for its products, while gently easing out domestic compliances and trade barriers. The region’s future relationship with the US will depend not only on Trump’s domestic agenda but also on how ASEAN and India navigate the delicate balance between American and Chinese influence in the years to come.
(The writer is a policy analyst; views are personal)
