Myanmar’s civil war sees resistance forces making major gains, yet the Junta retains key cities and economic hubs with China and Russia’s backing
Last week, Home Minister Amit Shah held a review meeting of Manipur under the President’s Rule and also discussed the trade routes to Myanmar with the border areas no longer under Junta’s control. Myanmarese Generals have ruled the roost since 1962. Their fourth coup February 2021, is the longest but one which has met with the biggest resistance and for the first time, the Bmar (Burmese) joined the opposition which consists of Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO), People’s Defence Force (PDF) under National United Government (NUG), local militias and rebel groups all united in defeating the Junta.
Under Junta's rule organized crime of which it is beneficiary has risen phenomenally to USD 2bn in cyber scams and other frauds. Many Indians have been unsuspecting participants and victims. Never before has Resistance been so organized in its fight against the military; success has come without any unified command and what at best is coordinated operations like Three Brotherhood Alliance which launched Operation 1027 by three EAOs – TNLA, MNDAA, and AA.
The last of these – the Arakan Army – is militarily the strongest and operates in the Rakhine province in the south while the other two EAOs operate in the northern Shan state. Codename 1027 denotes the launch date of the massive offensive in the north on October 27, 2023.
China plays a double role: supporting the Junta as well as some of the EAOs. Lately, there has been a policy shift - full support to the Junta. But Chinese pronouncements are deceptive; best to go by Chinese deeds, not words.On the ground, in the fourth year of the war, the Junta has lost considerable ground but is nowhere near being defeated. On the scale of conflict measurement, Junta holds 21 per cent of the territory which consists of the precious Irrawaddy heartland of Bmars and includes the new capital Naypidaw, Yangon and Mandalay, the two largest cities; and all sea ports and air bases. Only one seaport the India-operated Sittwe is under threat surrounded by the Arakan Army. Two military command headquarters and two air bases in the north and south have been taken by Resistance forces. Some 145 of 350 townships are lost by Junta which has also lost all trade routes/posts on the borders with Bangladesh, India, China, and Thailand.
Only one trade route Moosa, is with Junta. The Resistance controls 42 per cent territory with the remaining being No Man’s Land. More importantly, 80 per cent of people especially Bmars support resistance while only 20 per cent are with Junta. During previous uprisings, Bmar always supported the Junta. Corruption is endemic, top down and has eroded Junta’s military capabilities. It has led to defections and desertions with fighting battalions down to 100 men against the standard 600 soldiers. Some 167 battalions appear to have been lost, and weapons sold resulting in low morale and scant will to fight. Casualties are numerous on both sides but no figures have been released.
Junta commanders have made false claims about facts on the ground. Some ghost units are on the Orbat. Most supply lines have been rendered unusable for reinforcements.
All movement is by air and counter-attacks therefore also launched from air causing heavy casualties among the civilian population.The Resistance has been enriched by defectors who bring weapons and skills. Women now comprise 60 per cent of the force though they are mainly in support roles. In earlier uprisings, women constituted only 10 per cent.
This time diaspora support is unprecedented and a significant factor. Recruitment to PDF has also risen with support being provided by external players. PDFs are called ‘watermelons’ green outside and red inside. While green is the colour of the uniform, red is the colour of the National League for Democracy flag. Despite the high morale and momentum of success, Resistance requires a new military strategy, another 1027. Resistance is expected to attack Junta’s defence ordnance factories- their defence industrial base- near Mandalay and its loss will be a big blow to the military but still not enough to unhinge it.
PDF has to reorganize into battalion/brigade formations under a command structure to be able to capture and hold ground and take strategic targets like airbases. China and Russia, two P5 members in the UNSC, are partners with No Limits but not military allies. Both support the Junta.
Russia is now the key military supplier and since 2021, has provided equipment worth USD 406 mn. Junta supremo Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia last year ostensibly for a medical check-up.
Russia supplied six Su30 aircraft while six Burmese elephants were sent to Moscow. The Sukhois will significantly enhance aerial capability and cause additional civilian casualties. China remains the key stakeholder in Myanmar and is supporting the Junta as it has made major military and economic investments in Myanmar.
It eyes the rich minerals, oil, gas and hydropower. Its gas pipeline from Kyaukphu seat port on the Andaman Sea to Kunming in Yunnan provides Beijing access to the Indian Ocean. Gas pipelines are being supplemented by road and railway arteries. Along with Coco Island given on lease, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor constitutes an alternative route to China’s Malacca dilemma.
With 20,000 new recruits with Junta, Beijing has calculated that Resistance cannot defeat it. So Beijing-brokered ceasefires with EAOs in Kachin and Shan states and Kokang region in the north and also with MNDAA in January 2025. Beijing will also support Junta to hold elections in November 2025 giving it the fig-leaf of legitimacy.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views are personal)
