The politics of Odisha underwent a transformation in many spheres with the dawn of the 21st century. First, it centred around the newly formed BijuJanata Dal ( BJD) and the BhartiyaJanata Party( BJP) alliance from 2000 to 2009 and later, revolved singularly around the BJD. The Congress party, the second player since 2000, fell to the third position in the 2019 poll. While the BJD almost maintained its 2014 poll’s vote-share percentage in 2019 poll, the BJP’s vote share almost doubled due to the fall in the same quantum of the vote share of the Congress.
The post-2019 by-elections and the local body polls have indicated the 2019-poll political status of the three parties in order of score, though the Congress lost more percentage of its vote-share. The fall of the Congress party’s vote share in by-polls and local body polls have benefitted the BJP mostly. Therefore it is widely believed that the performance of the Congress in the forthcoming 2024 poll shall decide the political status of the BJP in the State.
There are two possible scenarios relating to the performance of the Congress in the next general election. One scenario is the revival of the Congress party and the other is its further decimation. These two scenarios shall yield two different electoral outcomes in the State. If the Congress’s vote share falls further lower than its 2019 -level, it shall benefit the BJP immensely. This is what the BJP leaders are also anticipating. As the Congress voters are primarily anti- BJD, it has been found that they move to another opposition party ( BJP) when Congress becomes weak at the constituency level. The fall in the vote share of the Congress helps the BJP more as there is no secular versus communal debate in Odisha to keep the Congress voters away from the BJP. Secondly, in a situation of the growth of the BJP at the constituency level during the poll, the dissident BJD- voters also move towards the BJP. This happened in Brahmagiri, Puri and some other Assembly constituencies enabling the BJP candidates to win without previous organisational strength. The same situation was also applicable to a Congress-ally in the fray.
The fall in the vote share of the Congress in LokSabha poll also helped the BJP.
In 2014 poll , the BJD had bagged 20 LokSabha seats and the BJP had bagged one. The Congress could not win in any seat. The margin of win was very high for the BJD as the Congress was in better position. The Congress was in the second position in 11 seats and the BJP was in the second position in 9 seats. Except Koraput and Nabarangpur , the BJD defeated the Congress by over one lakh votes margin in nine constituencies. Similarly, except Kalahandi, Bargarh and Sambalpur, the BJD defeated the BJP by over one lakhs votes in other constituencies.
But in 2019 poll, the BJD won 12 , the BJP won eight and the Congress won one LokSabha seat. The BJD defeated the BJP by over one lakh votes only in six seats (Kandhamal, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack and Aska). The BJP defeated the BJD within 30,000 vote- range in Sambalpur, Baleswar, Bolangir, Kalahandi, Bhubaneswar and Mayurbhanj seats. On the other hand, the BJP lost to the BJD in Puri ,Bhadrak and Dhenkanal within 35,000 vote margin. In Sundargarh seat, the BJP defeated the BJD by over two lakhs votes. The winning margin and the winning scenario of the BJD was disturbed due to the weakness in the Congress.
Let us look at the other possibility. If the Congress party revives at the national level and the State level and the State unit of the Congress makes better election- management, then there shall be a fall in the poll outcome of the BJP at the LokSabha and Assembly Constituency level which shall benefit the BJD like the 2014- poll.
What is happening to the BJD? The BJD shall obviously target to increase its vote share beyond 45% level of last election and enhance its last time score of 113 Assembly and 12 LokSabha seats, taking into account the BJP-Congress electoral dynamics. Last time, the BJD’s Assembly poll vote share increased marginally by 1.3% to reach 44.71% level whereas that of the BJP increased by 14.5% to reach 32.5% mark. But in the LokSabha poll, the BJP’s vote share increased by 16. 9% to reach 38.4% mark whereas the BJD’s vote share fell by 1.3% to 42.8% level. For the first time, the BJD’s vote share dropped by 1.3% in LokSabha electoral domain.
It appeared that there was resistance at 45% vote share level for the BJD in 2019 poll. The BJD’s growth depends on how it overcomes this resistance. The BJD shall also examine if the electoral-dynamics between the BJP and Congress can affect its voting domain.
The BJD Government has lunched many new programmes during 2019-24 period, including strengthening the Mission Shakti programmes to reach out to its traditional women voters. It may declare some more schemes. Organisational secretary MLA PranabPrakash Das has contributed to the strengthening of the organisation at the district level under the direction of BJD Supremo and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. The recent entry of the previous 5T Secretary VK Pandian into the BJD and his work under the direction of the BJD Supremo shall strengthen the election management efficiency of the BJD. Ticket selection, ticket-dissident management and countering the opposition’s propaganda shall play a crucial role in the electoral outcome of the BJD, though the political climate is favourable for NaveenPatnaik to become the sixth-term Chief Minister in 2024. The shortage of candidates in 147 Assembly seats might continue to haunt the BJP and the Congress in the next elections in the State.
