Slug: Haryana Assembly Election



Caste equations have always been the predominant X-factor in shaping the election outcomes in Haryana. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress appear to have kept the caste factor in mind while picking candidates for the Assembly elections of the State.

Haryana Chief Electoral Officer Pankaj Agarwal on Friday said that 11561 candidates from all political parties and independent candidates have filed 1747 nomination papers for the Assembly elections. The scrutiny of the nomination papers was conducted on Friday and nominations can be withdrawn till September 16. The BJP is hoping to win a third consecutive term while the Congress is hoping to ride on its momentum from the Lok Sabha elections to an assembly win.

An analysis of ticket distribution by the two national parties shows that both BJP and Congress, which have seen a spate of resignations over ticket distribution for the Assembly polls in the State, are banking on a coalition of castes.

It is no secret that the state is bitterly divided on caste lines. The Jat vs non-Jat divide plays a key role in the outcome of polls. While around 25 percent of total electorate in Haryana are Jats, the remaining 75 percent are non-Jats, which include Dalits, Brahmins, Yadavs, Gujjars, Baniyas, Rajputs among others. Dalit voters form around 20 percent in the state. Punjabis account for about 8 percent of the State's population, Brahmins 7.5 percent, Ahirs 5.20 percent, Vaish 5 percent, Gujjars 3.50 percent, Jat Sikhs 4 percent, Rajputs 3 percent, Sainis 2.9 percent, Kumhars 2.7 percent, Meos and Muslims are about 3.8 percent.

The BJP, which rode to power in the State in 2014 primarily due to its ability to consolidate the non-Jat voters, has tried to do it yet again. As it did in 2014 and 2019, the party fielded more non-Jat candidates than the politically significant Jats, who are known to yield clout in the state and are considered supporters of the Congress and the JJP-INLD. Out of 90 Assembly seats, castes such as Brahmins, Rajputs and Punjabis - which are not numerically dominant and are counted as general category - have been given more than 50 tickets by the BJP. 20 seats were given to the other backward classes while 17 to Scheduled Castes (the state has 17 reserved seats for SCs). The overall number of Jats is 16 in the BJP list, fewer than 19 in 2019 and 24 in 2014. The party has fielded seven Ahirs, six Gurjars and two Sainis.

The outreach towards non-dominant castes - OBCs and the general category - is an attempt to prevent numerically larger groups such as Jats and SCs from tilting the scale in favour of the Opposition. BJP has fielded three Brahmin candidates in Jat-dominated constituencies - Uchana Kalan, Safidon and Gohana, all near Uchana and Safidon in Jind district. Similarly, it has given tickets to three Brahmins in assembly segments falling in Faridabad Parliamentary constituency - Ballabhgarh, Palwal and Prithla.

BJP leaders are hopeful that the Congress will not emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the SC vote as it will be divided between the JJP-Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) alliance and the Bahujan Samaj Party-Indian National Lok Dal alliance.

A BJP leader said, “There is some resentment over ticket distribution, but the party will overcome the challenge. The ticket distribution was based on the winnability of the candidates in addition to ensuring representation to different castes. While identifying the candidates we ensured that different castes, irrespective of their numbers are given representation."

With as many as 24 Jat candidates in fray, the Congress has largely banked upon the Jat community to thwart the BJP from winning its third term in power. The Congress has fielded 24 candidates including three Meo-Muslims from the backward classes. While 19 of them are from the BC-B category comprising six castes of Ahir, Gujjar, Lodha, Saini, Meo and Gosain, five come from BC-A category comprising 72 castes like Kamboj, Bairagi. The Congress  has given party tickets to 12 candidates from other scheduled castes and five from the deprived scheduled castes (DSC).

Sirsa MP and senior Congress leader Kumari Selja said that during ticket distribution, every individual advocates for their workers, and there are many contenders, but the high command selects one. Once chosen, the candidate becomes the party's and everyone's candidate, and all party workers work towards their victory.

As per the election trends, the Jat vote bank has traditionally voted for the Congress and rival Indian National Lok Dal.  After INLD's split, its splinter group Jannayak Janta Party is further segregating the Jat votes. The community has dominated the state politics with Haryana witnessing the rule of Jat CMs Bansi Lal, Om Prakash Chautala and Bhupinder Singh Hooda in the past three decades.

On the other hand, the ruling BJP, which has in the previous elections proved that non-Jat voters can be kingmakers, is primarily focusing on consolidation of this vote bank in its favor. In the past, former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal, a non-Jat had managed to become a potential non-Jat option for the voters but now, the BJP has been trying to capture the non-Jat space in Haryana under Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who belongs to the Punjabi community.

In the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, the BJP failed to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana for the first time since 2014. The Congress and the BJP both won five seats, a result largely attributed to anger around the farm stir, the Agnipath scheme, the wrestlers' protests against then lawmaker and Wrestling India Foundation chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who was accused of sexual harassment.

Since it came to power in the state a decade ago, the BJP has fostered non-Jat leadership in Haryana. It first appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi Khatri, as the chief minister, and replaced him earlier this year with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC.

In Haryana, which is witnessing a multi-cornered contest with BJP, Congress, INLD-BSP alliance, JJP- ASP and, AAP, flexing muscles to win the 2024 Assembly polls, it will be interesting to see which political party has set the caste equation right.

With the end of its alliance with the JJP, which held influence over the Jat community, the BJP's strategy has been to consolidate its position among the numerically non-dominant castes, including OBCs and some "upper caste" groups.  With the dominant Jat community unhappy with the ruling party due to their unfulfilled demands, the BJP has fielded candidates focusing on cobbling together other castes including Dalits, Brahmins, Ahirs, Gujjars, Baniyas among others to win the polls in Haryana. The "delay" in addressing the concerns of the wrestlers added to the community's anger towards the BJP. With opposition not united in Haryana and Jat votes remaining divided, it would be interesting to see how the non-Jat social engineering works in the elections this time, political observers say.