An electoral loss in the tribal-dominated Vijaypur and a hair's breadth victory in its backyard of Budhni, results from the recently concluded by-polls, have come as severe jolts for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh.

The Budhni Vidhan Sabha seat is the traditional stronghold of former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. He was elected from here in the last assembly elections in 2023 with a margin of over one lakh votes. In 2024, he won the Vidisha Lok Sabha election; Budhni is also a part of the Vidisha Lok Sabha constituency. Ramakant Bhargava, who won from Budhni in the by-election, is considered to be close to Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

BJP circles are trying to determine the reason behind Bhargava’s victory with a thin margin, despite the fact that Chouhan had campaigned extensively in the constituency. Chouhan has been elected from this constituency for decades, since he became Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. The results of the by-election in Budhni suggest that he is losing his base in this assembly segment.

Scrutiny of caste equations in the area reveals that this constituency is also dominated by the Kirar community, to which Chouhan belongs. The only factor in the election was that the BJP had fielded Bhargava, a Brahmin, while the Congress had fielded a Kirar leader, Rajmukar Patel.

The result also suggests that the Kirar community did not vote en bloc for the BJP, which Chouhan had previously been receiving. This is probably the reason why the margin of victory for the BJP candidate in the by-election was so low. Chouhan's wife, Sadhna Singh, is still the national president of the Kirar community, and it is unlikely that the Chouhans have lost their grip on Kirar votes.

Political observers feel that in this election, when a Brahmin candidate was fielded by the BJP, the saffron party was required to make more efforts to garner the votes of the Kirar community, but it failed.At the time of candidate selection for the Budhni seat, the name of Chouhan's son, Kartikeya, was also in the panel. The name of Bhargava was approved by the high command, but Shivraj also had approval for his name. Party insiders opine that, by the next assembly elections, instead of Bhargava, Kartikeya might be fielded from Budhni.