All exit polls went wrong once again as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set for a third term in Haryana where counting of votes for Assembly elections 2024 took place on Tuesday, giving the BJP a comfortable lead over its top competitor, the Indian National Congress (INC). 

This is not the first time exit polls have gone wrong.  The Lok Sabha elections 2024, Chhattisgarh assembly polls in 2023, Results of 2015 Bihar and Delhi Assembly Elections as well as Lok Sabha polls of 2004 and 2014 are examples of how exit polls predictions went wrong.

Several exit polls had predicted a Congress victory in Haryana which recorded a voter turnout of 67.90 per cent. However, the BJP claimed it will return to power for a third consecutive term by winning 48 seats. This is a massive victory for the BJP in the state.

The key parties and alliances in the fray are the BJP, the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), INLD-BSP and JJP-Azad Samaj Party. However, most seats will see a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress.

The exit poll by ‘Dainik Bhaskar’ predicted 44-54 seats for the Congress and 15-29 seats for the BJP in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The C-Voter-India Today polls gave Congress 50-58 seats and the BJP 20-28 seats in Haryana, while the Republic Bharat-Matrize polls put the Congress tally even higher at 55-62 seats as against the BJP’s 18-24.

The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll gave the Congress 50-55 seats in Haryana and the BJP at 20-25, while Dhruv Research pegged the Congress at 50-64 and the BJP at 22-32.Peoples’ Pulse exit poll gave the Congress 49-60 seats and the BJP 20-32 seats in Haryana. Most exit polls pegged the INLD’s tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats.

Similarly, most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly in Kashmir but an alliance of the main opposition Congress and the National Conference Party (NCP) are on course for a landslide in the 90-member house and poised to form a government.

In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, at least 12 exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with some even predicted ‘400-paar’. However, the actual results were strikingly different. The NDA finished with 293 seats, far below the predictions. The BJP, in particular, failed to secure a simple majority on its own, winning only 240 seats, a loss of 63 from their previous tally of 303 in 2019. Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDIA Bloc claimed.

In the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections also the BJP regained control in Chhattisgarh in the 2023 Assembly elections, despite exit polls predicting an easy win for the Congress. The BJP secured over 50 seats, defying the projections. In Madhya Pradesh, only a few exit polls correctly predicted a decisive win for the BJP, which ousted the Congress after its five-year rule.

Same happened in 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. While pollsters then predicted a hung assembly, BJP emerged as the largest party winning an overwhelming majority of 325 seats.

Results of 2015 Bihar and Delhi Assembly Elections as well as Lok Sabha polls of 2004 and 2014 had been totally opposite to what pollsters had predicted then as well.