The stage is set for a high-stakes showdown between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav in the assembly bypolls scheduled for November 13. While Adityanath will lead the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) campaign, Yadav is set to spearhead the INDIA bloc’s electioneering. The contest has become particularly intense following the Congress’s decision to stay out of the race in nine of the ten seats, leaving a virtual direct face-off between the BJP and the SP.
"The by-polls are not just about local issues, but also a litmus test for the broader alliance politics ahead of the 2027 assembly elections," Dr. Prashant Kumar explains. "A strong showing by the SP will bolster Akhilesh’s position as the central figure of the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh, while a victory for the BJP would reaffirm Yogi’s grip over the state."
Among the nine assembly seats going to bypolls, eight were vacated after the election of sitting MLAs to the Lok Sabha in the 2024 general election. These eight seats are Karhal (Mainpuri), Katehri (Ambedkarnagar), Kundarki (Moradabad), Khair (Aligarh), Majhawan (Mirzapur), Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Phulpur (Prayagraj) and Ghaziabad Sadar (Ghaziabad). The Sisamau seat was vacated following the disqualification of sitting SP MLA Irfan Solanki, who has been sentenced by a court in a criminal case.
Another political analyst R.K. Mishra comments, “This bypoll is not just about winning seats; it is a battle for prestige. For Adityanath, the stakes are even higher as he looks to recover from the setbacks the BJP faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh. It’s a chance for him to reassert his hold over the party and state.”
After the BJP's less-than-expected performance in the general elections, Adityanath has taken on a proactive role in the by-election campaign, seeing it as an opportunity to restore party morale and demonstrate his enduring influence. Adityanath's frequent visits to the constituencies and his direct engagement with party workers show that he is leaving no stone unturned. This is as much about managing internal dissent within the BJP as it is about winning seats.
"Adityanath’s stature as a strong leader is being questioned, especially after the party's defeat in key constituencies during the Lok Sabha elections," says Mishra. "The bypolls are his chance to prove that his charisma and influence over the electorate are still intact."
Since the Election Commission initiated preparations for the by-elections in July, Adityanath has led from the front. He has toured all the constituencies, conducted strategy meetings with local leaders, and addressed public gatherings.
His campaign has been bolstered by government-organized “rozgar melas” to attract young voters and the announcement of new schemes targeting farmers and women.
Among the nine seats heading to polls, Karhal, Kundarki, Sisamau, and Katehri are considered SP bastions. Political analyst Pradeep Tiwari notes, “Adityanath's strategy is clear—focus on breaching the SP strongholds. By fielding four OBC candidates, the BJP is trying to woo the backward class voters, which could be a game changer.”
In contrast, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has focused on micromanaging the campaign from his election war room at the party office. While his approach may appear low-key compared to Adityanath’s public blitz, it is strategic. Yadav is banking on the PDA formula (Pichada or backwards, Dalits, and Alpsahkhyaks or minorities), which delivered significant gains for the INDIA bloc in the recent Lok Sabha polls. The SP emerged as the largest party in Uttar Pradesh, winning 37 seats, while Congress bagged six, pushing the INDIA bloc's total to 43 against the NDA's 36.
“Yadav’s emphasis on strengthening booth committees and directing leaders to focus on areas traditionally loyal to the BJP reflects a disciplined, ground-up approach,” says Prof. Anil Singh, a political observer. “He’s aiming to consolidate his core support base rather than getting caught in the BJP’s aggressive campaign tactics.” Yadav has also ensured the INDIA bloc’s unity in Uttar Pradesh by announcing that the SP will contest all nine seats, with Congress's acceptance of this decision reinforcing his leadership within the alliance.
An SP insider remarked, “Once the nominate ons are filed, the SP juggernaut will roll out in full force, with Akhilesh at the helm.”
The bypolls include key constituencies like Karhal, where Yadav’s cousin, Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, has filed his nomination. Of the nine seats going to the polls, four were won by the SP, three by the BJP, and one each by the Nishad Party and RLD in the 2022 assembly elections.
The stakes are particularly high in Karhal, an SP stronghold, and Ghaziabad Sadar, where the BJP hopes to regain lost ground.
With polling set for November 13 and counting on November 23, all eyes are on the outcome, which could set the tone for the political narrative in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 assembly elections. As R.K. Mishra puts it,
“This by-election is as much a test of Akhilesh’s leadership as it is a referendum on Yogi’s governance. It is a prelude to the battles yet to come.”
