As political results unfold in Haryana, their ripple effects are likely to shape the future of political alliances in Uttar Pradesh (UP), particularly the dynamics between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Political analysts say that the outcome could weaken Congress's bargaining position in its alliance with SP, with direct implications for the upcoming by-elections for 10 crucial seats in UP. These by-elections will serve as a litmus test for the effectiveness of the opposition's INDIA alliance, raising questions about Congress's role and influence in the state.
A senior Samajwadi Party leader told this reporter that the Haryana election results clearly indicate Congress is rapidly losing its base. The leader urged Congress to reconsider its rigid stance on seat-sharing and accept the offer made by the SP.
"The reality is that Congress lacks strong candidates to contest elections," the leader said, adding, "Even in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress can claim it won, but in truth, it secured only 6 out of the 49 seats won by the alliance. A similar situation unfolded in Uttar Pradesh as well."
According to political analyst Rajesh N Bajpayee, the Congress has historically struggled to make a significant impact in UP. In the last state elections, Congress won just six seats, largely because it contested as an ally of SP. Without that partnership, Congress risks becoming a minor player in the state's political landscape.
"The outcome in Haryana is pivotal because it reflects Congress's ability - or inability - to stand on its own. Failing to form Government, the Congress has now lost the bargaining power," feels political analyst.
The upcoming by-elections in UP are not just a regional political contest; they hold national significance as a test for the opposition's INDIA alliance. Formed to counter the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the alliance includes Congress, SP, and other regional parties. But the internal dynamics of this coalition are already strained by seat-sharing disputes, and the by-elections will test whether the alliance can present a united front.
Congress is reportedly eyeing five of the 10 seats in the upcoming by-elections, with a focus on Muslim-dominated constituencies. However, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is inclined to grant Congress only two. This tug-of-war over seat allocation underlines Congress's diminishing leverage in UP, which is expected to decline further after the Haryana results.
Yogi Adityanath's future tied to by-elections
The by-elections are also critical for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, whose future political trajectory hinges on the outcome. Having firmly positioned himself as a hardline Hindutva leader, Yogi faces the challenge of retaining his grip on power in the face of a rejuvenated opposition. A strong performance by the INDIA alliance could signal a shift in the political winds, putting pressure on the BJP Government in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections.
Yogi's Government has faced criticism over issues like law and order, unemployment, and communal tensions.
The by-elections will serve as a referendum on his governance, and a poor showing by the BJP could embolden the opposition. While Yogi retains strong support among the BJP base, cracks could emerge if the party fails to perform well, especially in the context of rising discontent among key voter groups.
