The Congress party has shown reluctance in contesting the upcoming Uttar Pradesh by-elections after being offered just two seats by its INDIA bloc ally, the Samajwadi Party (SP). This hesitation stems from internal divisions and concerns that a poor performance could undermine the party's bargaining power in the 2027 assembly elections.
Some Congress leaders argue against accepting SP's offer to contest two seats—Ghaziabad and Khair—which are considered strongholds of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). They believe that a loss in these constituencies could weaken the party's position when negotiating seat-sharing arrangements for the 2027 elections.
"This is why the state Congress leadership is hesitant to fully commit to the alliance with the Samajwadi Party for the by-polls," a senior party leader revealed.
Initially, Congress sought five of the 10 seats up for grabs in the by-elections. However, SP has nominated its candidates in seven constituencies, leaving Ghaziabad and Khair for Congress. These seats are seen as difficult for Congress to win, leading to internal debates over whether to participate at all.
Sources indicate that Congress fears a poor showing in these by-elections could limit its leverage when negotiating seat distribution for the 2027 assembly elections. If the party fails to perform, it may be left with little choice but to accept whatever seats SP allocates in the future, weakening its negotiating stance.
Ajay Rai, the Uttar Pradesh Congress president, addressed the concerns, stating, "We haven't refused to contest the by-elections, but two seats are not enough. The state leadership has communicated the reality to the party's top brass. Defeating the BJP is crucial, and we are willing to make sacrifices if necessary."
Within Congress, a faction opposes participating in the by-elections unless the party secures a more favorable seat allocation.
These leaders worry that accepting an unfavorable arrangement could set a precedent, making it difficult for Congress to demand a better deal in future elections.
Political analysts see Congress in a delicate position as it attempts to regain influence in Uttar Pradesh.
The 2027 assembly elections are viewed as a crucial opportunity for the party's resurgence.
However, a break with the SP could allow the latter to cast Congress as a spoiler within the anti-BJP alliance, damaging its credibility among voters.
The Samajwadi Party is also wary of openly rejecting the alliance, as a future BJP victory could prompt Congress to blame SP for any setbacks. Both parties remain in a strategic limbo, with the final decision on their alliance's direction resting with the central leadership.
“The upcoming by-elections are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the future of the Congress-SP alliance, with potential implications for their strategies heading into the 2027 assembly elections.
