With New Delhi intensifying border controls, the evolving political landscape of Bangladesh is set to influence regional security and diplomacy
The former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, abruptly left her country a week ago, causing immediate concern in her country and the region. According to the BBC, Hasina's family, not security officials, convinced her to leave due to safety concerns. Her son stated, "We begged her to leave as soon as the violent mob arrived." Crowds entered her residence shortly after her escape. Political, social, and economic issues, external involvement, and unhappy political opposition caused the downfall.
India's Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, has informed Parliament about her visit to India and the potential impact on India's relationship with Bangladesh. The unrest that led to her departure resulted in around 560 deaths and could strain the relationship between the two countries, potentially impacting regional security and foreign relations. Initially, in her long reign of 15 years, Hasina was perceived as a democratic and secular leader of Bangladesh, overseeing an economic turnaround. However, she later became intolerant and authoritarian, cracking down on media critics and imprisoning opponents.She maintained cordial relationships with Indian leaders, which sparked anti-India protests.
Prime Minister Modi mentioned that he had met her ten times last year. The friendship has been mutual, as Begum Hasina also reciprocated by driving out the terrorists who targeted India and allowed concessions for transit facilities. She was the first state guest during the Modi government's third term.India has had a special relationship with Bangladesh since it was born in 1971. After her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder of Bangladesh, was assassinated in 1975, Hasina spent six years in India. After that, she shifted to Dhaka to lead the Awami League.The current student protests, which started on July 5 against the 30% reservation for descendants of freedom fighters and the 56% quota for government positions, have impacted the political situation in Bangladesh. The Hasina government's proposal to expand this quota led to widespread protests and 200 deaths. Bangladesh opposition parties organized a 'long march' to express growing discontent with the government's policies.
At the international level, tensions rose between Hasina and the U.S. when her American visa was revoked after she fled the country. The U.S. State Department emphasized the importance of the interim government in establishing long-term peace and political stability in Bangladesh. The U.K. and other countries also took the same stand. The international community is working to support the interim government led by Yunus, who is responsible for restoring normalcy. New Delhi has set up a monitoring committee and increased border control to address the situation. Madam Khaleda Zia and other opposition leaders were released after Hasina's departure. During Khaleda's two terms, Bangladesh-India relations weakened. Her visit to Delhi was also a disaster. Khalida's release may enable her to lead her party, and she stressed the need for a democratic Bangladesh and emphasized peace and unity.Hasina and Khalida's sons are ready to take over their respective parties. The potential returns of these two and the other Opposition leaders could bring significant changes to the political landscape of Bangladesh.
According to Hasina's son, she is ready to face any inquiry but has yet to decide on the party's leadership. Meanwhile, Hasina blames the U.S. for her ouster. Her son claims she had no time to resign and is still the Prime Minister. Bangladeshis have protested in front of the White House and the U.K.New Delhi closely monitors the situation, especially concerning border and regional security, as well as the security of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. The Modi government is apprehensive about the safety of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. Prime Minister Modi has called for the protection of Hindus in Bangladesh after violent incidents targeted them. The Hindu minority also protested on the streets.Bangladesh's economy, which was looking up, is declining due to Hasina's intolerance, violence, unemployment, and inflation. The country relies on India for essential commodities and infrastructure. India needs to reconsider its Bangladesh policy after the leader's departure.
The third issue concerns the porous border between India and Bangladesh, with allegations of Bangladeshi infiltrators and refugees entering India. A friendly Hasina government helped check this problem while Khalida was in denial mode.New Delhi's decision to adopt a wait-and-watch policy is a positive step.
The situation depends on the elections' timing and the two Begums' potential return.
If new leadership emerges, New Delhi will need to take a stand. To maintain regional peace, India's role in assisting Bangladesh in returning to normalcy is crucial and urgent. A peaceful, stable, and prosperous Bangladesh is in India's best interests. India should do everything to ensure it.The situation is still evolving, and the uncertainty of the future political landscape of Bangladesh is palpable.
We will know more once the elections are announced and the plans of the two begums are revealed. The potential return of the dynastic rule adds an element of intrigue to the situation.
(The writer is a popular columnist; views are personal)
