New world order: Is Western hegemony crumbling

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New world order: Is Western hegemony crumbling

Saturday, 14 September 2024 | Nilantha Ilangamuwa

New world order: Is Western hegemony crumbling

In an unprecedented joint public appearance, CIA Director William Burns and MI6 Chief Richard Moore assert the enduring strength of their intelligence agencies

Last week, the heads of major Western intelligence agencies made a striking public appearance, first with a provocative op-ed and then in a high-profile interview with the Financial Times editor. Although some questions remained unanswered, their statements provided critical insights into their covert and overt operations. William Joseph Burns, Director of the CIA, and Richard Peter Moore, head of MI6/SIS, both distinguished diplomats before their current roles, asserted with conviction that their organisations are more formidable than ever. Their strong professional alliance highlights a key strategy: confronting their main adversaries, Russia and China. This unprecedented public engagement reflects Sun Tzu’s strategic principle from The Art of War: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” So, who is truly weak? Is this a perfect example of Orwellian doublespeak in the era of Artificial General Intelligence? The nuances of their statements suggest an intriguing answer when read between the lines.

This marks the first joint public appearance by Burns and Moore since their appointments, though separately they have spoken occasionally in public gatherings, signalling a departure from the traditionally more secretive approach of their predecessors. This dramatic ‘openness’ may be part of a broader strategy to project strength and capability in a shifting global power dynamic. Their commentary suggests that Western hegemony is waning, and those within the system must awaken and confront Russia before China is brought into the strategic equation, challenging the rise of Asia and the Global South. The article’s audacious claim, if accurate, that “We have no more trusted or esteemed allies,” starkly reveals the widening chasm among their partners.

This intensifying polarization is driven by rising discontent with the United States and the United Kingdom, whose actions have exacerbated global crises and dragged others into worsening conflicts. Burns and Moore emphasised the crucial role of transparency in the 21st century and democratic systems, noting that public engagement is key to demonstrating their agencies' priorities and building trust.

Burns highlighted the importance of visibility for attracting talent and enhancing public understanding of their work. The discussion also revealed the deep collaboration between their agencies, which has been instrumental in global events, such as providing early warnings about the war in Ukraine. Moore praised their joint efforts and the "best athlete model," where the most suitable agency handles specific operations, showcasing a high level of trust and effectiveness.They also addressed broader geopolitical issues, noting the threat posed by the cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. While these nations share military technology, their collaboration is described as pragmatic rather than value-based, unlike the alliances within the Western intelligence community. Burns and Moore mentioned the lack of direct evidence of weapon transfers from China to Russia and the stalled status of the gas pipeline from Russia to China, attributing its likely incompletion to sanctions and shifting geopolitical factors.

However, they offered no new information on the widely reported Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, where it was suggested the CIA had prior knowledge.  Regarding the increasing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, including the use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine, both spies recognised the heightened threat to US allies in Asia. Moore highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating, “North Korean weaponry and dual-use materials from China are already impacting the battlefield in Ukraine, and this cooperation poses a significant danger.” Both leaders also stressed the critical importance of ongoing support for Ukraine, with Burns noting the severe and methodical nature of the conflict, where “Putin is using a traditional tactic of taking village by village, leaving nothing behind.”

Despite the grim outlook, the resilience of the Ukrainian forces remains a focal point. Moore lauded Ukraine's bold strategy, such as the move into Kursk, as a game-changer. He remarked, “The Ukrainians, by going in and taking Kursk, have really brought the war home to ordinary Russians,” disrupting Putin’s narrative and demonstrating the effectiveness of their counteroffensive.Addressing the broader implications of the conflict, Burns acknowledged that while Putin’s grip on power remains firm, it is not necessarily stable. “Putin’s grip on power doesn’t seem to be weakening, but don’t ever confuse a tight grip with a stable grip,” he stated. The recent Kursk offensive and past events, such as the Prigozhin mutiny, have exposed vulnerabilities within Russia, challenging Putin’s confident narrative.Burns and Moore discussed the differing approaches of the US and UK in providing military aid to Ukraine. Burns reaffirmed the US's substantial support despite concerns over escalation, emphasising the ongoing commitment to Ukraine even amid Russia's nuclear threats. Moore echoed this, stressing that the West must not be intimidated. They also addressed Russia’s intelligence operations in Europe, noting a shift toward using criminal elements for sabotage, which has made these operations easier to detect.

The discussion also highlighted the threat of Russian intelligence, citing the 2018 Salisbury poisoning as a stark example of their reckless tactics. Moore emphasised the importance of dealing with such threats through intelligence sharing and collaboration. They also touched on Russian military intelligence activities in the Americas, particularly concerns about Russian agents operating in Mexico and potentially aiding illegal migration into the US. Burns assured that this issue remains a top priority, with law enforcement agencies closely monitoring and countering such threats. Burns updated on efforts to secure a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, based on a three-phase plan proposed by President Biden: ceasefire, hostage release, and reconstruction. Despite progress, finalising the deal remains challenging, requiring strong political will and mediator support.

He hopes new proposals will drive action, with both leaders urging external pressure on Hamas for humanitarian aid and peace. Burns also backed the two-state solution but no questions were raised about the US's double standards—hosting ICC-wanted Benjamin Netanyahu while pushing other nations to arrest Putin on an ICC warrant. This highlights the hypocrisy in the US approach to international justice.Regarding Iran, Moore expressed concern about potential retaliation for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. “We shouldn’t let our guard down regarding the type of activity Iran might pursue,” he cautioned, citing Iran’s history of destabilising actions and support for militant groups. But the overthrow of Mosaddegh, the shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655, and unilateral sanctions show the real picture.

The discussion then shifted to the strategic challenge posed by China. Burns and Moore both underscored that China remains a top priority for their respective agencies. “The CIA has reorganised to reflect this priority,” Burns noted, highlighting a significant increase in resources dedicated to addressing China’s challenges. Despite economic difficulties in China, Moore observed that Xi Jinping remains a powerful and ambitious leader, making understanding China crucial for global strategic dynamics.Burns and Moore discussed the transformative role of AI in intelligence operations, with Moore emphasising its use in data analysis and counterterrorism, while Burns stressed the importance of maintaining open channels with China. They highlighted the need to balance AI advancements with human oversight.

Their public appearance reflects a shift in Western strategy, focusing more on leadership than on traditional destabilisation tactics. With the US elections approaching, it is clear that a broader alliance is working to secure Vice President Kamala Harris's victory against her main contender, Donald Trump. In his book, The Back Channel, Burns comments on Trump, stating, “In the age of Trump, America is diminished, the president’s worldview smaller and meaner, the world full of difficult currents.”  The entire discussion highlights how the absence of decisive political leadership is not only eroding the system but also accelerating the West’s decline. This decline follows decades of destabilizing nations in the Global South and Europe to maintain hegemony, which is now cracking. This situation goes beyond the simplistic notion of new adversaries emerging against the West. It signifies a profound awakening from the deep-seated colonial legacies that have long influenced many Asian, African, and Latin American countries. Consequently, the old mantra of manipulation, isolation, and elimination may no longer work.

(The writer is a journalist and author; Views are personal)

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