As the India-China border standoff enters its fourth year, diplomatic nuances and symbolic gestures hint at a potential thaw in bilateral relations
The India-China border standoff enters its fourth year and there are intermittent aberrations from both countries. Even problems in third-world countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka and now in Maldives have also become irritants for both the Asian giants. The most recent one is the avoidable situation created by a very small country like Maldives. There is also natural competition between the two rising economic powers especially in the neighbourhood.
But as India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr S Jaishankar recently said the rise of China is a reality but there is an equal reality that is the rise of India. During a conversation with a journalist at the High Commission of India in London, Dr Jaishankar emphasised that the rise of China is a reality but there is an equal reality that is the rise of India. “The rise may be different...quantitatively or qualitatively they may not be identical," he said. “The two (India and China) are among the oldest civilisations in the world...Some realities need to be recognised,” he pointed out.
In between two small but important events took place in India which points out a possible détente if not now but in future. A group of top Chinese scholars visited Smruti Mandir (memorial of RSS founder Keshav Baliram Hedgewar) in RSS headquarters, BapuKutir, Mahatma Gandhi Antarrashtriya Hindi Vishwavidyalaya (Mahatma Gandhi International Hindi University) in Nagpur and nearby Wardha. Though many foreign delegates visit Nagpur frequently, this visit was not that significant on the face of it. But it was the high-level visit of a group of scholars from China with whom India does not have a once excellent relationship after the 2021-22 clashes in the vast borders. Prior to this the leading Chinese media Global Times in an unusual article lauded India's foreign policy strategy under Modi, highlighting the nation's multi-alignment approach and bolstering ties with major global powers such as the US, Japan, and Russia. Normally, the official media in China do not comment in such a positive way with India.
Unlike frequent bonhomie between Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, diplomatic relations are not on good terms for over three years. But as the famous saying goes in international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. Bilateral relations between two countries who are both big in population, size, economy and many other fields are also governed by the same principle mostly - Economy. This trend is slowly but steadily becoming visible in the relationship between India and China in recent times despite the border standoff. One should also remember that the nearly four yearlong border impasse has not deteriorated further and there are regular talks even though there is not much progress. There are no further clashes. The year 2023 saw some stabilization in relations, which offers promise for the future. The two sides discuss resolving the border standoff and signal interest in restoring some normalcy in their relations, but their militarized border remained mostly quiet in the last year.
Symbolically, with momentum from the 2022 handshake and brief exchange between the Indian Prime Minister and Chinese President at the G-20 summit in Indonesia, disengagement in five areas on the border, and the fast and quiet resolution of the border clash at the Yangtze, the background seemed promising. There were also meetings between the defence and foreign ministers of the two sides as part of India’s hosting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization allowed discussion of border tensions, while the 19th round of the corps commander-level talks produced an agreement that the two sides should resolve the remaining issues on which they disagreed “in an expeditious manner.”
India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks before their respective leaders were scheduled to meet and worked on disengagement in the two remaining areas of immediate tensions on the border. The Economist, a famous British weekly stated a “detente” between China and India, Xi and Modi discussed relations in person at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg and agreed “to intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation,” according to the Indian side.
It was not that there was no damper. Xi did not attend the G-20 summit in Delhi in September through his Prime Minister. There is tension in the Indo-Pacific region and the emergence of QUAD, a diplomatic network between Australia, India, Japan and the United States. The personal chemistry between the top two is yet to be revived. Both countries keep on trying to spread presence and influence in the neighbourhood. But all these are natural trends for any country in today’s complete world.
At the same time as former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, the world has enough space for the growth ambitions of India and China. In practice, both New Delhi and Beijing have maintained a status quo that has not worsened the situation. Moreover, the two sides are actively talking to each other and discussing their troubled relationship and the tense situation on the disputed border. This has been happening both between the military and diplomatic establishments of the two countries and between their top leaders. Negotiations on stabilizing the border itself continue, most recently with the 28th round of talks that form part of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs.
Apart from all these factors, India, its diplomatic relations with Asian countries including China are deeply rooted in history and cultural ties. Ancient trade routes like the Silk Road connected India to various parts of Asia, facilitating cultural exchanges.
Buddhism, which originated in India, spread to several Asian nations, creating lasting cultural and religious connections. Such historical and cultural linkages prove to be strong foundations of diplomatic ties. India also has a lot to gain by forming regional alliances, such as economic opportunities, strategic partnerships and cultural diplomacy.
Economically, Asia is one of the fastest-growing regions globally and stronger ties could open new markets for trade and investment. Politically, a united Asian front could serve as a counterbalance allowing for a more multipolar world order where India plays a significant role.
India will be the biggest beneficiary of such a wonderful partnership as it will give a chance to cross borders more easily and explore their Asian culture through trade, travel and employment opportunities. But all depends on the result of the Parliament elections in India before this mid-year. But to put it in the words of late Atal Behari Vajpayee “we can change our friends but not our neighbours.
(The writer is former member of of press council of India and presently coordinator of World Association of Press Councils; views are personal)
