COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, left developing nations frustrated over unmet climate finance commitment making chances of climate reversal bleak
UNFCCC’s COP29 concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 24, leaving the vulnerable countries disappointed in the deal made in climate finance. The deal was announced by the Presidency to mobilise $300 million annually by 2035 as against the $ 1.3 trillion target put forth by developing nations, which was also supported by India. Developed countries have abandoned the global south, and have to muster their resources for mitigation and adaptation towards the challenges of the climatic crisis.
It is more than three decades that Scientists have been constantly reminding us of the transition of our energy dependency from coal, oil and gas to solar, wind and other renewables. Burning of fossil fuels ever since industrialisation began in 2019 has caused the cumulative emission of 2400 gigabits (Gt) of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, oxides of nitrogen and fluorocarbons – measured as CO2 equivalent). It was also added that an additional 500 Gt would warm the planet by 1.50 C above the preindustrial level leading to frequent and destructive climate events like cyclones, cloudbursts, forest fires, floods, droughts and heat waves disrupting our lives and livelihoods.
Despite such a warning, global annual emission is nearly 40 Gt of CO2 equivalent. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has found 2023 as the warmest year in recorded history and evident from the data till September 2024 is set to register a new temperature record.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has brought all 200 countries together to review actions on their pledges in the annual conference of parties (COP). At COP29 held in Paris in 2015, countries made certain pledges to be fulfilled by 2030 about cutting dependency on fossil fuels, transitioning towards renewables and providing finance to vulnerable countries for adaptation and mitigation etc. G20 countries which contribute 80 per cent of the global emissions and also hold 85 per cent of global GDP have become rich at the cost of global warming. Except for India, none of the G20 countries is on course to fulfil NDC pledges by 2030. South Asian, African and island countries have been the most vulnerable and greatest sufferers of extreme climate events and have been deprived of adequate funds for adaptation and mitigation. It was resolved at the COP held in 2009 in Copenhagen that developed nations would provide climate finance of $100 billion to vulnerable countries annually with effect from 2020, but only $400 million was provided till 2022. The annual $100 billion fund committed by developed nations is set to continue till 2035 and only after that, it would be $300 billion. Though the Paris climate deal set in 2015 called for an upward revision of the annual fund of $100 billion in 2025, the Baku conference did not respect it and revised it only with effect from 2035.
A new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance was mandated to be set by COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, to support vulnerable and developing countries. In 2025 it was to replace the $100 billion annually set in 2009. UN evaluation estimated $500 billion annually, while some other projections suggested that $1.3 trillion is needed annually. Developing countries that are at the receiving end estimate an annual requirement of $5 trillion for the purpose. Trump is not likely to contribute, COP29 in the first week of deliberations, failed to get any solid commitment from other developed nations to contribute towards it. Big emitters like the US and China were not even represented by heads of state at Baku.
As COP29 could not take a call on NCQG in the first week, UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged world leaders assembled at Rio de Janeiro for the G20 meeting, to send a strong signal that climate action is the core business for the world’s biggest economies and step up climate finance globally but they too did not make any firm commitment and failed to break the deadlock. The cumulative emission of the US since industrialization began has been 537 Gt CO2equivalent, China 324 Gt, EU 305 Gt, Russia 184, Brazil 122, Indonesia 101 and India 89. The cumulative figure of China has recently gone passed the EU.
At present annual emissions of China have been 14 Gt, the US 8 Gt, the EU 6 Gt and India under 3 Gt. China’s cumulative emission is 213 Gt behind the US and as it closes the gap by 6 Gt every year, it would take 36 years at this rate to surpass the US’s cumulative emission. Developed countries that contributed to 2400 Gt cumulative emission have announced measures and pledged to cut emissions, but their action is not visible on the ground and the emissions are rising every year. Also, there has been an expansion of oil and gas production in the EU, US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia etc. and many fold expansion of coal in China. Developed countries that want bigger economies like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia should also contribute to climate finance towards NCQG. China’s scuttling this move is unjustified.
At present China is contributing to warming the planet in a big way. Why should it not pay? Scott Bessent who has been picked as Treasury Secretary for Trump 2.0, has announced a “3-3-3” plan that includes 3 per cent annual growth in GDP, bringing down the budget deficit to 3 per cent of GDP and additionally producing 3 million barrels of oil and gas daily. This is bound to spike the GHG emissions globally and further the increase in temperature. The vulnerable nations at the end of COP29 argued for raising at least $1.3 trillion towards NCQG, but amidst a hard fight, protests by a group of 77 and walk out by island nations, the developed nations agreed to provide $300 billion annually that too by 2035 and continue with the existing $100 billion till then. India also supported the demand of the developing nations and said that without adequate support in terms of finance, technology and capacity building the fight against climate change would be severely impacted.
The delegates from developing nations voiced anger and lambasted wealthy nations for not doing enough. The rich countries responsible for warming the planet are now leaving vulnerable countries in the lurch to face the consequences. Starting from 2005, Carbon trading has been increasing exponentially, but a lot of fraudulent accounting and greenwashing have undermined its credibility.
Rule 6 dealing with the carbon market needed some resolution and the same was pending for the last few COPs, although the funds are quite useful for climate mitigation works. COP29 cleared this long pending agreement allowing countries to trade carbon credits – certified reductions of carbon emissions at prices determined as a consequence of emission caps imposed by the countries. It has also been agreed that the operations of the carbon market would be supervised by the UN body.
Strict UN control is needed, as a project proponent in the developed nation can pay for an afforestation project to absorb 1000 tons of CO2 in a developing nation where trees fail to put in desired growth and are unable to sequester the entire quantity of carbon credited. Further, whether the countries claim credit generated across borders and also whether it can be counted in their NDC? Last year at Dubai COP 28 it was agreed to transition away from fossil fuel consumption, but none of the developed nations have demonstrated to cut the emissions. It is distressing that COP29 did not take up a review. The leading economies are consuming fossil fuels increasingly, without bothering about disastrous consequences. I recommend countries to slow down GDP growth, till renewable energy is fully developed.
(The writer is principal Chief Conservator of Forests, Head of Forest Force, Karnataka; views are personal)
