As the US push for de-escalation, the risk of a multi-front war looms large, threatening to destabilise West Asia
The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the subsequent retaliatory measures have intensified the long-standing conflict between the two nations, raising fears of a broader war in West Asia. The airstrikes, which targeted Iranian military installations and reportedly resulted in the deaths of four Iranian soldiers, were framed as a response to Iranian aggression. Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, quickly reacted with rocket salvos targeting residential areas in northern Israel, signalling the potential for the conflict to spread. The current episode of hostilities began after Israeli warplanes allegedly used Iraqi airspace to conduct strikes on military and radar installations in Tehran. These actions were framed by Israel as necessary measures to neutralise threats posed by Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty, insisting on its right to retaliate. As expected the United States has firmly backed Israel, reiterating its “ironclad” support and cautioning Iran against further retaliation. Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, expressing concern about the potential for the violence to escalate uncontrollably.
The conflict’s spillover into Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s rocket attacks targeted northern Israel, highlights the interconnected nature of West Asia politics. Hezbollah, a powerful militia with close ties to Tehran, represents Iran’s most prominent proxy in the region. Its involvement indicates that the conflict could easily escalate beyond a bilateral confrontation between Israel and Iran, drawing in other state and non-state actors. The conflict’s potential to involve additional countries is significant. Lebanon, already grappling with a fragile political and economic situation, could become a battlefield, destabilising the broader Levant. Similarly, Iraq’s alleged involvement in providing airspace for Israeli operations could trigger responses from Shia militias in the country. Besides, Iran’s network of proxies, including militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, could engage in coordinated retaliatory strikes against Israel or the US interests in the region. This would complicate efforts to contain the conflict and could lead to an asymmetric, multi-front war. It goes without saying that diplomatic efforts are urgently needed to prevent the situation from deteriorating further. One country that could convince Israel for ceasefire is the US. It could leverage its influence over Israel and its regional allies to push for restraint, while simultaneously deterring Iranian retaliation through diplomatic channels. In fact even the US does not want the war to spill over. Direct communication between Washington and Tehran could prevent misunderstandings that might trigger further escalation. Besides, international neutral actors such as India, Russia, or regional mediators like Oman could facilitate backchannel negotiations aimed at establishing a ceasefire. The war must be stopped at any cost now else it could be a free-for-all, making it precursor to the World War III.
