Exit polls predict change in Haryana and a hung assembly in  J and K; if true, would indicate Indian politics is in transition

Exit polls from the state elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are indicating a decisive win for the Congress in Haryana and a hung assembly in Jammu  and Kashmir. As these predictions dominate political discourse, they offer a glimpse into possible power shifts in these two critical regions. In Haryana, the exit polls suggest that the Congress is set to reclaim power, ousting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government, which has been in office since 2014. If these predictions hold true, it would also underscore the growing discontent among Haryana’s electorate, particularly farmers and rural voters, who have been dissatisfied with the BJP’s handling of agricultural reforms and the aftermath of the 2020 farmers’ protests. The Congress, capitalising on this unrest, appears to have successfully mobilised voters, especially in the rural areas and among the Jat community. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, exit polls point towards a hung assembly, signaling the challenges of forming a stable government in the Union Territory. With no single party projected to secure a majority, political maneuvering and coalition-building will become crucial in the coming weeks.The fractured verdict reflects the complexity of the region’s political landscape post the revocation of Article 370 in 2019. The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) is expected to emerge as a significant player, but the BJP has also made inroads, particularly in the Jammu region. So not only numbers but post-result alliances would decide the formation of the govenment. Indeed, a hung assembly could lead to prolonged negotiations and possibly a fragile coalition, underscoring the political uncertainty that has plagued the region in recent years.

A Congress victory in Haryana could be a defining moment in national politics. It would signal that the BJP’s stronghold in the Hindi heartland is weakening and Jats (who have significant presence in western UP) are returning to Congress fold and non-Jats —  upper castes – the traditional BJP voters are also have also splitted. Congress couldn’t be happier as it could also galvanise Congress supporters across other northern states, particularly Rajasthan and Punjab, where state elections are due soon. But it would have a daunting task of keeping the rebels happy as they could turn the tables. In contrast, the outcome in Jammu and Kashmir-if a hung assembly materializes-could deepen political instability in the Union Territory. A coalition government would have to balance the diverse and often conflicting interests of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, complicating governance. Moreover, this result could prompt national parties, particularly the BJP, to reassess their strategies in sensitive regions like Jammu and Kashmir, where identity politics and security concerns dominate  However, as with all exit polls, it’s important to approach these predictions with skepticism, given how they have been inaccurate in past elections.